Commercial Real Estate Credit —
South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · IN, MI
The read
$168M of CMBS across 4 loans. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2029 ($72M, 43% of the book). Distress is flat in the filed record — 0.0% as of 2026-07. 5 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (49 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
CMBS Distressed UPB
under $1M / 0.0%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$22M
Local Banks (stressed)
1 / 2
Bank Early-Warning
0 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
4
Layoff Notices (1y)
1 / 49 jobs
0.04% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
4 / $168M
Unemployment · Jul 2026
4.2%
-0.8pp yr
Office-Using Jobs · 2024
16,539
-1.5% yr
How much CRE distress is there in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI right now?
In South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, CRE distress is currently quiet across the three measurable indicators. The metro records 0 store closures per 100,000 jobs (rank 128 of 392 by count, 110 by rate) — and store closures sit at 3 closures total, against a denominator of 116466 metro jobs. Layoff notices (WARN) are similarly low, with 1 notice — a 0.03% share of the metro's 148524 employed persons (rank 212 of 386 by count, 215 by rate). Bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line holds at $65.8mm — a 4.15% rate against $1586.8mm in bank CRE allocated to the metro by branch deposits (rank 198 of 393 by count, 172 by rate). The securitized loans in special servicing reading is not measurable here — the signal is present (2 rows) but the denominator cannot be read, so that leg reflects an absence of measurement, not an absence of distress. All three measurable pairs agree quiet; three pairs are unadjudicated because one side is blind.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
3 closures | 2.58 per 100k jobs | 128 of 392 | 110 of 392 | quiet trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
1 notices | 0.03% | 212 of 386 | 215 of 386 | quiet trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$65.8mm | 4.15% | 198 of 393 | 172 of 393 | quiet
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
2 loan records | — | — | — | cannot be read
not measurable 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
0 both elevated
3 both quiet
0 disagreeing
3 unreadable — a side is blind
0 of four legs elevated
blind: securitized loans in special servicing
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
{'coverage': "114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.", 'a_count_ranks_by_size': 'Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes. Every leg carries both ranks over ONE population; quote the rate beside the count.', 'disagreement_is_not_severity': 'Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro. The six pairs read different populations, and each note is a STRUCTURAL prior about those populations — nothing here measures a lead or a lag between two legs, so never report one as timing.', 'a_blind_leg_is_not_a_quiet_one': "A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason. Never report a blind leg as 'no distress'."}
{'fork': 'a blind leg is not a quiet one', 'note': 'securitized loans in special servicing cannot be read here. Their low numbers are an absence of MEASUREMENT.'}
{'leg': 'closures', 'unit': 'jobs', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 116466, 'measures': 'store closures', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': "all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading"}
{'leg': 'warn', 'unit': 'employed', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 148524, 'measures': 'layoff notices (WARN)', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': 'employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted'}
{'leg': 'bank', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-03-31', 'value': 1586.8, 'measures': 'bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': 'bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits'}
{'leg': 'cmbs', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-07-29', 'value': 168.0, 'measures': 'securitized loans in special servicing', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': "current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio"}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 43780 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
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Which distress signals are elevated in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, and which cannot be read?
In South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, distress signals are not elevated, but readings are mixed: the 90th percentile bank CRE at risk is 8.4%, while the bank CRE allocation is 0.6% and distressed lender CRE totals $65.8mm. The CMBS special servicing UPB is $0.0mm, with a 0.0% share of metro UPB, and distressed bank assets are 0. The signal convergence is 0, meaning no elevation is present. A clearest gap: the $0.0mm CMBS figure is unavailable as a true reading—the 2 loans in special servicing have no balance on the tape, so this reflects a data gap, not an absence of distress.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $0.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 0.0%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $1.59bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 8.4%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $65.8mm
- Assets at those lenders
- $0.00bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 0.6%
- Legs agreeing
- 0
- Phase
- watch
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 2
- Distressed banks
- 0
- Store closures (past year)
- 3
- WARN notices (past year)
- 1
an isolated signal, not a convergence
little to no distressed CRE dollars behind the signals; and the securitized side is NOT MEASURED here — all 2 loans in special servicing sit on tape rows carrying no balance, so the $0 is a gap in the tape, not an absence of distress
signals are present but neither credit-material nor ground-heavy
Written from the figures above · CBSA 43780 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 27 Aug 2026
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Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Jul 2026
4.2%
-0.8pp yr
Last 24 months
3.2%5.5%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 116,466 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
Too few CMBS loans here (4) to say whether this metro's rate is explained by its property mix — that comparison needs 25.
No CMBS sector data for this metro.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$22M — 13% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is FLAT — 0.0% now (2026-07), +0.0pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $168M of the metro's $168M; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$22M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 7 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$131M more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.16× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.12×.
Regional Bank Room
$131M
After Committed Draws
$81M / −38%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.16×
Banks In Footprint
7 / 0 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $50M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $50M
comes out of the room above, leaving $81M.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so under $1M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 06-26 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
2 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 7 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake City Bank IN | 7.1% | 209% total 294%
|
🔒 | 0.14% |
| Northwest Bank PA | 1.3% | 109% total 145%
|
🔒 | 1.53% |
| First State Bank Of Middlebury IN | 5.3% | 141% total 251%
|
🔒 | 0.58% |
| Centier Bank IN | 2.2% | 265% total 318%
|
🔒 | 1.52% |
| First Federal Savings Bank IN | 4.7% | 189% total 196%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Horizon Bank IN | 0.5% | 235% total 331%
|
🔒 | 0.26% |
| First Merchants Bank IN | 0.0% | 183% total 243%
|
🔒 | 0.59% |
Not counted — 10 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
1st Source Bank IN · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Fifth Third Bank, National Association OH · Pnc Bank, National Association DE · Keybank National Association OH · The Huntington National Bank OH · G. W. Jones Exchange Bank MI
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Old National Bank IN · Woodforest National Bank TX · Flagstar Bank, National Association NY
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2025) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
313 banks holding $268.2B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Source Bank | $1.2B | 56% total 89%
|
0.17% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
In South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, the maturing CMBS balance is $21.5mm from 1 loan, against local bank capacity of $80.9mm after committed draws, yielding a wall-to-room ratio of 0.27 — above the median of 0.20 and ranking 120 of 270 from the most strained. With 7 banks qualifying and 3 excluded here, the market has slack to refinance this wall, especially as the distressed share is 0.0%.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $21.5mm
- … across this many loans
- 1
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $130.9mm
- Committed construction draws
- $50.0mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $80.9mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.27
- Rank, most strained
- 120
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 270
- … before committed draws
- 0.16
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 7
- … excluded from the calculation
- 3
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 0.0%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $168.0mm
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.20 across the ranked metros.
0.27 is ABOVE the median of 0.20, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro
120 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
{'room_is_a_proxy': 'Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.', 'ratio_is_not_size': 'The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros. Read maturing_bal_mm beside the ratio — the map sizes bubbles by the wall, not the strain, for exactly this reason.', 'wall_is_cmbs_only': "The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.", 'exclusion_artifact': 'A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here. Check banks_qualifying against banks_excluded_here, and explained_by_exclusion.'}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 43780 · capacity_metro · last changed 06 Sep 2026
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On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
5 local distress events in the past year (49 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-08-24
CLOSURE
South Bend
2026-04-06
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-04-06
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-03-26
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-03-26
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-01-22
CLOSURE
South Bend
2025-12-31
CLOSURE
Mishawaka
2025-12-31
CLOSURE
South Bend
2025-10-29
LAYOFF
49 jobs · South Bend
2025-08-31
CLOSURE
South Bend
2025-04-23
LAYOFF
203 jobs · South Bend
2023-03-23
LAYOFF
261 jobs · South Bend
2021-12-10
LAYOFF
114 jobs · Granger
2021-03-31
LAYOFF
75 jobs · South Bend
2020-10-21
LAYOFF
271 jobs · South Bend
What has actually happened on the ground in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI recently?
In the last 365 days, South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI has seen 5 CRE-related bankruptcy filings (a state-proxy count, not metro-native), affecting 49 jobs. On the ground, there have been 4 confirmed store closures and 1 WARN notice (with affected jobs at a floor of 49, as some notices may not state headcounts).
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 4
- WARN layoff notices
- 1
- Jobs on those notices
- 49
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 5
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 43780 · geo_events · last changed 06 Sep 2026
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What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read. The Verstavo platform goes loan‑by‑loan — stress
scores, maturity walls, special‑servicing transfers, bank CRE, and your own portfolio benchmarked
against the market.