Start free trial
No credit card required
Verstavo › The Track Record
Would we have flagged it?
OUR EARLY-WARNING SIGNAL, REPLAYED ACROSS 24 YEARS OF FDIC DATA · 2001–2024
Every year we take the banks that look clean today and flag the ones quietly
registering early 30–89 day delinquency — then check who actually crossed into CRE distress a year
later. The flagged banks deteriorated at a median 2.2× the rate
of the ones we didn’t flag — in every one of the 24 cohorts — and
the signal fired before the 2008 crisis, not during it.
Signal holds — every cohort
≈2.2× flagged vs control
Into the GFC · 2008 cohort
39% vs 24% reached distress
Firing now · 2024 cohort
5.7% vs 2.0%
Flagged (clean today, top-quartile 30–89)
Control (clean, not flagged)
Distress = noncurrent CRE reached 3% within one year, among banks below 1% today (total CRE ≥ $50M). Shaded band = 2006–2010.
What this says — and what it doesn’t
- Testable from 2001 only — the 30-89 bucket was not collected earlier, so the replay spans one full prior cycle (the GFC) plus today, not the S&L crisis.
- Survivorship understates the edge: failed banks leave the panel and have no one-year-later reading, and failures are the worst outcomes — so the true lift is higher than shown.
- A signal, not a verdict. It says a flagged bank is likelier to deteriorate, not that it will — read it as awareness, alongside the bank's own numbers.
- The one weak year was 2021 (1.2×) — forbearance and stimulus compressed everyone; we show it rather than sand it off.
See the full backtest — and the banks showing this signal today.
Every cohort, the methodology, and the current watchlist of clean banks with elevated early
delinquency — the live end of this same signal — are in the Verstavo platform.
See today’s watchlist →
No credit card required
See the whole picture.
Everything on the public side of this site is free, and every figure on it is rebuildable from the filing it cites. The platform goes loan‑by‑loan — stress scores, maturity walls, special‑servicing transfers, bank CRE, and your own portfolio benchmarked against the market.