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Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · FL
The read
$194M of CMBS across 20 loans. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2029 ($92M, 48% of the book). Distress is flat in the filed record — 0.0% as of 2026-07. 10 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (653 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
CMBS Distressed UPB
under $1M / 0.0%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$35M
Banks HQ’d Here (stressed)
0 / 3
Bank Early-Warning
0 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
3
Layoff Notices (1y)
7 / 653 jobs
0.28% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
20 / $194M
Unemployment · Aug 2026
5.6%
+0.3pp yr
Office-Using Jobs · 2024
45,604
-3.1% yr
How much CRE distress is there in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL right now?
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL shows a mixed but generally contained distress picture. Store closures are quiet at 4 closures (1.73 per 100k jobs, rank 98 of 392 by count), while layoff notices are elevated at 11 notices (0.13% of employment, rank 52 of 386) — a reading the board interprets as "a large-employer event rather than a retail one." Bank CRE noncurrents sit at $139.8mm, 2.68% of allocated CRE, and the CMBS book shows 0 rows in special servicing; both agree quiet with closures and with each other. Of the 6 pairs, 3 disagree (each involving the elevated WARN leg) and 3 agree quiet, with none both elevated. The pattern suggests employment stress is running ahead of what lenders or the securitized tape have booked.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
4 closures | 1.73 per 100k jobs | 98 of 392 | 198 of 392 | quiet trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
11 notices | 0.13% | 52 of 386 | 150 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$139.8mm | 2.68% | 140 of 393 | 224 of 393 | quiet
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
0 loan records | 0% | 220 of 335 | 220 of 335 | quiet 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
0 both elevated
3 both quiet
3 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
1 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.
Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes.
Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro.
A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason.
Store closures: divided by 231,349 jobs
— all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading (trailing 365 days to today).
Layoff notices (WARN): divided by 344,014 employed
— employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted (trailing 365 days to today).
Bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line: divided by $5,215.9 mm
— bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits (2026-03-31).
Securitized loans in special servicing: divided by $239.0 mm
— current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio (2026-07-29).
Written from the figures above · CBSA 29460 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
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Which distress signals are elevated in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, and which cannot be read?
In Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, the elevated distress signal is the "warn" designation, driven by 11 WARN notices and 4 store closures over one year; the underlying cause is described as "the ground is wobbling (closures / layoffs) but little CRE-credit distress sits behind it yet — a real-economy signal, not (yet) a CRE-credit event," with materiality marked as "immaterial." For CRE-credit distress, readings are largely unavailable or flat: bank CRE exposure is $5.22bn with 0.0% allocated as exact share and 79.5% at risk at the 90th percentile, while CMBS special servicing shows $0.0mm UPB and 0.0% share of metro UPB, and distressed lender CRE totals $139.8mm with 0 in distressed bank assets and 0 distressed banks. The phase is "early," described as "ahead of the record," and the convergence indicator is 1, but no metric for direct bank-level distress is provided beyond the stated figures.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $0.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 0.0%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $5.22bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 79.5%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $139.8mm
- Assets at those lenders
- $0.00bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 0.0%
- Signals reading elevated
- WARN layoff notices
- Legs agreeing
- 1
- Phase
- early
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 0
- Distressed banks
- 0
- Store closures (past year)
- 4
- WARN notices (past year)
- 11
the ground is deteriorating but CRE credit has not yet been hit — the leading edge
little to no distressed CRE dollars behind the signals
the ground is wobbling (closures / layoffs) but little CRE-credit distress sits behind it yet — a real-economy signal, not (yet) a CRE-credit event
Written from the figures above · CBSA 29460 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 27 Aug 2026
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Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Aug 2026
5.6%
+0.3pp yr
Last 24 months
4.0%6.0%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 231,349 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
Too few CMBS loans here (20) to say whether this metro's rate is explained by its property mix — that comparison needs 25.
No CMBS sector data for this metro.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$35M — 18% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is FLAT — 0.0% now (2026-07), +0.0pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $129M of the metro's $194M; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$35M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 5 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$208M more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.17× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.13×.
Regional Bank Room
$208M
After Committed Draws
$173M / −16%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.17×
Banks In Footprint
5 / 0 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $107M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $34M
comes out of the room above, leaving $173M,
with 1 bank
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $73M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 06-26 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
1 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 5 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens Bank And Trust FL | 93.0% | 164% total 313%
|
🔒 | 0.71% |
| Hancock Whitney Bank MS | 0.2% | 146% total 229%
|
🔒 | 0.26% |
| Bank Of Central Florida FL | 89.9% | 290% total 426%
|
🔒 | 0.35% |
| Axiom Bank, National Association FL | 7.3% | 171% total 188%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Crews Bank & Trust FL | 5.3% | 242% total 322%
|
🔒 | 0.07% |
Not counted — 11 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Truist Bank NC · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · Bank Of America, National Association NC · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Td Bank, National Association DE · Regions Bank AL · Fifth Third Bank, National Association OH · Trustco Bank NY
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2026) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
315 banks holding $263.8B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens Bank And Trust | $417M | 164% total 313%
|
0.71% | 🔒 |
| Bank Of Central Florida | $511M | 290% total 426%
|
0.35% | 🔒 |
| Southstate Bank, National Association | $28.3B | 281% total 389%
|
0.32% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
Lakeland-Winter Haven reads as a slack-capacity metro rather than a strained one: the CMBS wall of 7 maturing loans totaling $34.6mm sits against $173.3mm of room after committed draws, a wall-to-room ratio of 0.20 (0.17 before committed draws) — below the 0.24 median, placing it 150 of 275 counting from the most strained. The caveat is that this room rests on 5 qualifying banks while 3 are excluded here, and the room figure is a deposit-footprint proxy for lending capacity, not a measurement of it; the wall itself is CMBS-only and thus an upper bound on what local banks would need to absorb.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $34.6mm
- … across this many loans
- 7
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $207.5mm
- Committed construction draws
- $107.3mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $173.3mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.20
- Rank, most strained
- 150
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 275
- … before committed draws
- 0.17
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 5
- … excluded from the calculation
- 3
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 0.0%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $194.4mm
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.24 across the ranked metros.
0.20 is BELOW the median of 0.24, so this metro is LESS strained than the typical ranked metro
150 of 275, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.
The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros.
The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.
A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here.
Written from the figures above · CBSA 29460 · capacity_metro · last changed 25 Oct 2026
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On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
10 local distress events in the past year (653 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-10-20
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 11
2026-10-19
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 7
2026-10-16
LAYOFF
199 jobs · Fort Meade
2026-10-15
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-10-12
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 11
2026-10-08
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 11
2026-10-07
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-10-05
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 7
2026-10-02
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 7
2026-07-21
LAYOFF
54 jobs · LAKELAND
2026-07-20
LAYOFF
37 jobs · LAKELAND
2026-07-20
LAYOFF
38 jobs · LAKELAND
2026-02-17
LAYOFF
98 jobs · LAKELAND
2026-02-10
LAYOFF
203 jobs · LAKELAND
2026-01-31
CLOSURE
Winter Haven
What has actually happened on the ground in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL recently?
Over the trailing 365 days, the on-the-ground record for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL shows 3 store closures and 7 warn notices, with 653 jobs affected — a figure that is a floor, since notices stating no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs. On the bankruptcy side, the only reading available is a state proxy: 53 cre bankruptcies, which counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in rather than a metro-native count, and because coverage widened to both court feeds on 2026-09-16, counts before and after that date are not comparable. No metro-native bankruptcy figure is among the vetted numbers, so that reading is unavailable here.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 3
- WARN layoff notices
- 7
- Jobs on those notices
- 653
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 53
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — a court case counts in its filing district and an SEC 8-K in the filer's state, not where the property is, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count. Each court case is counted once even when both PACER and CourtListener carry it. A court case's state is its filing district; an SEC 8-K or news item carries the filer's state. Coverage widened to both court feeds on 2026-09-16, so counts before and after that date are not comparable.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 29460 · geo_events · last changed 25 Oct 2026
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What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read — one page for every market we cover. The platform goes loan‑by‑loan inside it: which buildings carry the stress, when their debt comes due, and your own portfolio benchmarked against the market you are standing in.