Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Wichita, KS

Wichita, KS shows little evidence of commercial real estate distress on the three measurable legs. Store closures sit at 2 closures (ranked 179th by count, 286th by rate per 100k jobs), with a rate of 0.76 per 100k jobs, and are not elevated. WARN layoff notices are at a floor of 2 notices (0.02% of employment), also not elevated. Bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line is $102.4mm, or 1.07% of allocated CRE, and is not elevated. The securitized loans leg, however, is elevated on the count (9 rows), but its rate is unavailable, so whether that is a lot for this metro cannot be said — that is an absence of measurement, not a quiet reading. Of the six possible pairings, three agree quiet, and three disagree, all with the securitized leg hot and the other legs quiet — the classic signature that any distress here is in securitized property, not in retail, employers, or local bank books.

For Wichita, KS, the elevated distress signal is on the securitized side: cmbs_special_servicing_upb reads $0.0mm and cmbs_ss_share_of_metro_upb is 0.0% — but these figures reflect a tape gap, not an absence of distress, as all 9 loans in special servicing carry no balance on their tape rows. The bank side shows no elevated reading, with distressed_bank_assets_bn at 0 and distressed_lender_cre at $102.4mm. The reading for bank CRE at risk is 32.9% (a 90th-percentile measure), but this is not flagged as credit-material. The convergence score is 1, indicating an isolated signal. The reading on bank allocation is 24.4% (exact share), and bank CRE totals $9.53bn. The phase is "watch" — signals are present but neither credit-material nor ground-heavy, with the cmbs side not measured due to the tape gap. No reading is unavailable; all stated figures are quoted above.

On the vetted reading, Wichita looks well placed: the CMBS wall is 4 maturing loans and $37.0mm against $598.1mm of room after committed draws, a wall-to-room ratio of 0.06 (0.03 before committed draws), and 21 banks qualifying against 6 banks excluded here — ranking 225 of 275 counting from the most strained, so less strained than the typical ranked metro. That capacity is a proxy, not a measurement, and the wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months rather than the metro's whole maturity load, so this is an upper bound; the distressed share figures at 0.0% and the reading is unremarkable.

Over the trailing 365 days, the on-the-ground activity in Wichita, KS shows 4 store closures and 3 WARN notices, with 72 jobs affected (a floor, since notices stating no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs). CRE-likely bankruptcies register 0, though this is a STATE PROXY rather than a metro-native count.