Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue carries $5.1 billion of CMBS across 151 loans, and the standout is Mixed-Use: at an 11.0% distress rate, the sector runs at 2.2 times the 5.0% national mark on a small $0.3 billion book. Office is the larger weight — $2.6 billion on the page at a 13.2% distress rate, above the 11.3% national — while Multifamily sits at 8.0% against a 7.6% national line. Retail (0.7% versus 2.7% national) and Hospitality (0.0% versus 6.1%) are the quiet corners of this metro's book.
The filed record is rising, printing 7.6% distress as of July 2026 against a 7.9% overall rate across the metro's loans, even as the median DSCR holds at 1.98. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2029, when $1.1 billion comes due at a 13.6% distress rate; another $0.8 billion matures in 2028 and $0.7 billion in 2027, with $1.4 billion of the book maturing inside the next 24 months.
On the ground, the metro logged 180 distress events over the past year, touching 9,588 jobs, split between store closures and layoff notices. The labor backdrop is soft — unemployment at 5.0% in July 2026, up 0.4 points year over year, with office-using employment down 2.0% — which sits alongside the office and mixed-use readings that lead this book.
Distress in Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA is uniformly elevated across all four independent feeds, with all 6 possible pairwise comparisons agreeing—none quiet, none disagreeing. Store closures rank 6th of 392 by count at 69 closures (3.83 per 100,000 jobs); WARN notices rank 10th of 386 at 80 notices (0.41% of employment); bank CRE over the noncurrent line sits at $1,699.0 million, 5.83% of the $29,126.2 million allocated to the metro (31st of 393 by count); and securitized loans in special servicing total 10 rows at 7.88% of the $5,065.0 million trust slice (20th of 335). No leg is blind, so no reading is unavailable. The unanimity is notable given the bank leg is allocated by branch deposits rather than confirmed by call reports, yet the signature here is broad-based—retail, employers, lenders, and CMBS all read hot simultaneously.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
69 closures | 3.83 per 100k jobs | 6 of 392 | 58 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
80 notices | 0.41% | 10 of 386 | 46 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$1.70bn | 5.83% | 31 of 393 | 131 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
10 loan records | 7.88% | 20 of 335 | 57 of 335 | elevated 2026-07-29
|
In Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA, credit distress is confirmed and material, with "hundreds of millions of distressed CRE exposure" behind it. The key elevated signals include bank distressed CRE at $1.70bn (with a 8.9% bank allocation share and 34.6% of bank CRE at risk at the 90th percentile), CMBS special servicing (at $399.0mm, representing 7.9% of metro UPB), and real-economy distress with 69 store closures and 80 WARN notices over the past year. The phase is "peak" and "confirmed," as leading and realized signals fire together. However, bank-level distress cannot be read: the number of distressed banks is 0 per the count, and distressed bank assets are 0 — so that signal is not elevated.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Community Bank WA | 98.1% | 219% total 295%
|
🔒 | 0.28% |
| Washington Trust Bank WA | 25.5% | 216% total 310%
|
🔒 | 0.50% |
| 1st Security Bank Of Washington WA | 47.7% | 221% total 268%
|
🔒 | 0.73% |
| Banner Bank WA | 14.9% | 253% total 379%
|
🔒 | 0.22% |
| Northwest Bank ID | 27.3% | 177% total 224%
|
🔒 | 5.26% |
| Peoples Bank WA | 14.9% | 232% total 328%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Commencement Bank WA | 71.1% | 246% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Heritage Bank WA | 44.0% | 295% total 432%
|
🔒 | 0.20% |
| Timberland Bank WA | 25.6% | 289% total 378%
|
🔒 | 0.43% |
| Beneficial State Bank CA | 10.9% | 285% total 395%
|
🔒 | 3.44% |
| Mountain Pacific Bank WA | 85.3% | 296% total 444%
|
🔒 | 0.39% |
| Gbc International Bank CA | 8.9% | 269% total 379%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| American Continental Bank CA | 2.5% | 196% total 264%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Fed Bank WA | 1.9% | 269% total 332%
|
🔒 | 1.89% |
| Unibank WA | 100.0% | 365% total 570%
|
🔒 | 0.81% |
| Sound Community Bank WA | 44.0% | 311% total 378%
|
🔒 | 0.98% |
| Portage Bank WA | 16.1% | 321% total 415%
|
🔒 | 2.53% |
| Us Metro Bank CA | 12.2% | 393% total 560%
|
🔒 | 1.97% |
| United Business Bank CA | 6.7% | 402% total 555%
|
🔒 | 0.48% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Pacific Bank | $502M | 296% total 444%
|
0.39% | 🔒 |
| Sound Community Bank | $442M | 311% total 378%
|
0.98% | 🔒 |
| Unibank | $181M | 365% total 570%
|
0.81% | 🔒 |
| 1st Security Bank Of Washington | $1.1B | 221% total 268%
|
0.73% | 🔒 |
| Pacific Crest Bank | $183M | 449% total 475%
|
0.62% | 🔒 |
| Wafd Bank | $10.2B | 332% total 373%
|
0.38% | 🔒 |
| Coastal Community Bank | $1.5B | 219% total 295%
|
0.28% | 🔒 |
| Commencement Bank | $321M | 246% total 391%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA ranks 22 of 270 most strained metros, but the headline wall-to-room ratio of 2.73 — above the median of 0.20 — reflects a $1.46bn CMBS wall (41 loans maturing) against bank room of just $534.9mm after committed draws, and $1.13bn before them. The 19 qualifying banks here face tight capacity, though 10 were excluded for deposit footprints that don't clearly indicate local lending, and the reading is shaped by the wall being CMBS-only, not this metro's full maturity load. Distressed share sits at 8.0%, with CMBS UPB of $5.00bn and committed draws of $937.8mm narrowing the buffer.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVB | — | -0.6% | 95.9% | -0.3% | 2026-07-30 |
| EQR | +0.4% | +2.0% | 96.1% | +2.4% | 2026-04-28 |
| ESS | — | +1.7% | 96.4% | — | 2026-07-30 |
| UDR | +1.9% | +1.9% | 97.3% | +1.7% | 2026-07-27 |
In the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro over the past 365 days, the ground-level data shows 0 CRE-related bankruptcy filings (a state-proxy count), 76 WARN notices impacting at least 9,613 jobs (a floor, as notices without stated headcounts contribute 0), and 74 approved store closures.