Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · CA
The read
$447M of CMBS across 29 loans. Distress is easing in the filed record — 2.2% as of 2026-07. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2027 ($99M). 21 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (418 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
In Santa Rosa, the filed record is cooling even as the storefront count climbs
Santa Rosa-Petaluma carries $447M of CMBS across 29 loans, a small book by national standards, and the securitized signal here is quiet and getting quieter. Distress in the filed record stands at 2.2% as of July 2026, and the trend line is falling. A median DSCR of 1.66 tells the same story from the underwriting side: the loans that report are covering their debt service with room to spare.
The watch item is the maturity calendar. The heaviest load lands in 2027, when $99M comes due — the single largest concentration in the book. For now that vintage shows no distress in the filed record, and the metro's other maturity buckets are similarly clean, with the exception of a thin 2028 tranche. The refinancing question, not current delinquency, is where the attention belongs.
Away from the trustee reports, the ground-level tally is busier: 21 distress events over the past year — 12 store closures and 9 layoff notices — touching 418 jobs. Unemployment sits at 4.3%, down 0.4 points year over year, while office-using employment of 29,951 has slipped 1.0% over the same span. It is a mixed picture, but the securitized credit itself is not where the strain is showing.
CMBS Distressed UPB
$10M / 2.2%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$180M
Local Banks (stressed)
0 / 3
Bank Early-Warning
1 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
12
Layoff Notices (1y)
9 / 418 jobs
0.23% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
29 / $447M
Unemployment · Jul 2026
4.3%
-0.4pp yr
Office-Using Jobs · 2024
29,951
-1.0% yr
How much CRE distress is there in Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA right now?
Looking at Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA (CBSA 42220), the distress picture is clear and concentrated on the operating side. Three of the four independent feeds are elevated: store closures stand at 6 over the trailing year (3.35 per 100,000 jobs, rank 70th of 392 by count and 75th by rate), WARN layoff notices total 17 (0.19% of employment, 42nd by count), and bank CRE over the noncurrent line sits at $968.3mm (17.05% share of lent CRE, 42nd by count, 24th by rate). Distress on the securitized side, however, is not elevated, with 1 special-servicing row at a 2.23% share. The three agreeing pairs—closures/WARN, closures/bank, and WARN/bank—all read hot, pointing to a genuine operating-level deterioration feeding through to lender balance sheets. The three disagreements all involve the CMBS tape, which reads quiet while the other legs run hot; the structural notes indicate this is a retail story playing out on buildings the tape does not hold, with lenders carrying stress on a book the tape cannot see. With 0 quiet pairs and 3 of 6 disagreeing, the consistent message is operational stress in the local economy that has already reached the banking sector, while securitized capital remains insulated from the same pressures.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
6 closures | 3.35 per 100k jobs | 70 of 392 | 75 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
17 notices | 0.19% | 42 of 386 | 122 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$968.3mm | 17.05% | 42 of 393 | 24 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
1 loan records | 2.23% | 90 of 335 | 90 of 335 | quiet 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
3 both elevated
0 both quiet
3 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
3 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
{'coverage': "114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.", 'a_count_ranks_by_size': 'Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes. Every leg carries both ranks over ONE population; quote the rate beside the count.', 'disagreement_is_not_severity': 'Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro. The six pairs read different populations, and each note is a STRUCTURAL prior about those populations — nothing here measures a lead or a lag between two legs, so never report one as timing.', 'a_blind_leg_is_not_a_quiet_one': "A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason. Never report a blind leg as 'no distress'."}
{'leg': 'closures', 'unit': 'jobs', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 179151, 'measures': 'store closures', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': "all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading"}
{'leg': 'warn', 'unit': 'employed', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 233985, 'measures': 'layoff notices (WARN)', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': 'employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted'}
{'leg': 'bank', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-03-31', 'value': 5679.0, 'measures': 'bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': 'bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits'}
{'leg': 'cmbs', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-07-29', 'value': 448.0, 'measures': 'securitized loans in special servicing', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': "current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio"}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 42220 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
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Which distress signals are elevated in Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA, and which cannot be read?
In Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA, the elevated distress signals are bank distressed CRE, closures, and warn, with the bank CRE at risk at the 90th percentile reaching 55.1% and distressed lender CRE at $968.3mm. The reading on CMBS special servicing is available at a share of 2.2% of metro UPB ($10.0mm in special servicing), but the overall distressed bank asset share (bank allocation) is unavailable — the stated figure is 0.0%, which reflects no bank allocation rather than a readable distress level.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $10.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 2.2%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $5.68bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 55.1%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $968.3mm
- Assets at those lenders
- $1.00bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 0.0%
- Signals reading elevated
- bank CRE over the noncurrent line, store closures, WARN layoff notices
- Legs agreeing
- 3
- Phase
- early
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 1
- Distressed banks
- 1
- Store closures (past year)
- 6
- WARN notices (past year)
- 17
the ground is deteriorating but CRE credit has not yet been hit — the leading edge
little to no distressed CRE dollars behind the signals
the ground is wobbling (closures / layoffs) but little CRE-credit distress sits behind it yet — a real-economy signal, not (yet) a CRE-credit event
Written from the figures above · CBSA 42220 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 27 Aug 2026
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Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Jul 2026
4.3%
-0.4pp yr
Last 24 months
3.7%4.8%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 179,151 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
This metro's CMBS runs 2.2% distressed where its own property mix predicts 4.7% — $11M less than this book would carry at the rate each property type runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted and excluding this metro. The gap is measured; the cause is not.
No CMBS sector data for this metro.
Elimination — does the gap survive a control?
Each row re-prices this metro's book on a finer cell — its own property types, then those types split by loan size, then by vintage — always at the rate that cell runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted. A gap that shrinks toward zero is explained by the control; one that stays has ruled it out. What is measured is what survives, not a cause.
property mix alone
-2.5pp
… and loan size held fixed
-2.4pp
the gap is still there with loan size held fixed too
… and vintage held fixed
-2.7pp
the gap is still there with vintage held fixed too
The largest single contributor is Office: 5 loans, $84M, running 0.0% where the same type runs 11.3% elsewhere — worth 2.1pp of this metro's own rate.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$180M — 40% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is FALLING — 2.2% now (2026-07), -3.9pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $338M of the metro's $447M; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$180M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 6 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$301M more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.60× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.12×.
Regional Bank Room
$301M
After Committed Draws
$259M / −14%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.60×
Banks In Footprint
6 / 5 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $178M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $42M
comes out of the room above, leaving $259M,
with 5 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $136M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
Counted — 6 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Bank CA | 91.6% | 225% total 255%
|
🔒 | 0.59% |
| Summit State Bank CA | 87.3% | 341% total 509%
|
🔒 | 2.74% |
| Poppy Bank CA | 46.4% | 360% total 557%
|
🔒 | 2.15% |
| Bank Of Marin CA | 12.0% | 366% total 440%
|
🔒 | 0.50% |
| Mechanics Bank CA | 0.5% | 340% total 362%
|
🔒 | 0.30% |
| Tri Counties Bank CA | 0.3% | 315% total 396%
|
🔒 | 0.54% |
Not counted — 8 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Bank Of America, National Association NC · Westamerica Bank CA · Bmo Bank National Association IL · U.s. Bank National Association OH
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Columbia Bank OR · Wafd Bank WA
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2025) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
313 banks holding $268.2B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poppy Bank | $4.6B | 360% total 557%
|
2.15% | 🔒 |
| Summit State Bank | $606M | 341% total 509%
|
2.74% | 🔒 |
| Exchange Bank | $1.1B | 225% total 255%
|
0.59% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
Santa Rosa-Petaluma has room to refinance its near-term CMBS wall, but is careful not to overstate the cushion. With a maturing balance of $179.6mm across 11 loans against local bank room of $301.4mm before committed construction draws (and $259.3mm after), the metro's wall-to-room ratio of 0.69 — above the typical metro's 0.20 — ranks it 63 of 270 most strained. Even after accounting for the $178.2mm in draws already committed, capacity remains positive.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $179.6mm
- … across this many loans
- 11
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $301.4mm
- Committed construction draws
- $178.2mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $259.3mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.69
- Rank, most strained
- 63
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 270
- … before committed draws
- 0.60
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 6
- … excluded from the calculation
- 2
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 2.2%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $447.4mm
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.20 across the ranked metros.
0.69 is ABOVE the median of 0.20, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro
63 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
{'room_is_a_proxy': 'Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.', 'ratio_is_not_size': 'The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros. Read maturing_bal_mm beside the ratio — the map sizes bubbles by the wall, not the strain, for exactly this reason.', 'wall_is_cmbs_only': "The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.", 'exclusion_artifact': 'A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here. Check banks_qualifying against banks_excluded_here, and explained_by_exclusion.'}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 42220 · capacity_metro · last changed 06 Sep 2026
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On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
21 local distress events in the past year (418 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2027-01-26
CLOSURE
Petaluma
2027-01-26
CLOSURE
Petaluma
2026-08-14
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-07-22
LAYOFF
51 jobs · Santa Rosa
2026-07-14
LAYOFF
49 jobs · Santa Rosa
2026-06-01
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-04-30
CLOSURE
Petaluma
2026-03-30
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-03-23
LAYOFF
14 jobs · Kenwood
2026-02-23
LAYOFF
134 jobs · Santa Rosa
2026-02-12
LAYOFF
11 jobs · Healdsburg
2026-02-12
LAYOFF
13 jobs · Sonoma
2026-02-03
LAYOFF
30 jobs · Petaluma
2026-01-31
CLOSURE
Rohnert Park
2026-01-31
CLOSURE
Santa Rosa
What has actually happened on the ground in Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA recently?
In the Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA metro over the past 365 days, the on-the-ground reading shows 9 WARN notices tied to 418 jobs affected and 6 store closures, alongside 3 CRE-related bankruptcy filings (a state proxy, not a metro-native count, given filing locations). Overall, 6 store closures and 418 jobs affected represent the available confirmed figures; any further granularity on vacancy or absorption is unavailable from this data set.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 6
- WARN layoff notices
- 9
- Jobs on those notices
- 418
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 3
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 42220 · geo_events · last changed 27 Aug 2026
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What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read. The Verstavo platform goes loan‑by‑loan — stress
scores, maturity walls, special‑servicing transfers, bank CRE, and your own portfolio benchmarked
against the market.