San Jose carries $6.5 billion of CMBS across 94 loans, and the servicer-filed record is moving the right way. The metro's distress rate — loans in special servicing or 60-plus days delinquent — sits at 7.9% as of July 2026, down on a falling trend, with $0.5 billion of paper carrying that flag. Office dominates the book at $5.1 billion; the national office distress rate runs 11.1%, and the metro's modest $0.3 billion retail slice shows no filed distress against a 2.6% national mark. Median DSCR of 2.36 underscores a lender base that, at the portfolio level, still has cushion.
The pressure point is the calendar. Some $1.9 billion comes due inside 24 months, and the heaviest single-year load lands in 2027 at $1.3 billion. Behind it, $1.2 billion matures in 2030, $1.0 billion in 2031 and $0.8 billion in 2034 — the later vintages carrying no filed distress today. The near-term maturities are where refinancing math gets tested.
Beneath the filed figures, the on-the-ground record tells a harder story: 134 distress events over the past year — 115 layoff notices and 19 store closures — tied to 11,188 jobs. Unemployment stood at 4.3% in August 2026, down 0.4 points year over year. The gap between an easing servicer record and a still-active stream of layoff filings is the tension to watch in this metro.
All four of this metro's stress legs are reading high right now — that's 4 of 4 signals elevated, and all 6 pairwise comparisons agree hot, with 0 quiet and 0 disagreeing.
The strongest warning comes from layoff notices: WARN filings ran at 177 notices, or 1.16% of the metro's 1,011,902 employed persons — that's the metro ranking 4th by count and 9th by rate out of 386 metros, a genuinely stressed reading, not a size effect.
Store closures are also elevated, but here the size caveat matters: 13 closures over the trailing 365 days clears the flat threshold (rank 34th of 392 by count) yet sits below the median on rate, at 1.26 closures per 100,000 jobs (rank 242nd). So that leg is on the list because San Jose is big, not because it's stressed per unit of itself.
Bank CRE distress is elevated too: $3,095.4 million over the noncurrent line against $26,560.4 million allocated to the metro, an 11.65% rate that ranks 21st by count and 52nd by rate of 393 metros. A caveat applies here — the allocation is by branch deposits, which the call report can't confirm for most of the book.
The securitized tape shows 6 rows in special servicing against a $6,551.0 million current balance, an 8.58% rate, ranking 28th by count and 53rd by rate of 335 metros. That one is measured at the property, not allocated, so it's the tightest read of the four.
In short: widespread distress, with the WARN leg the most rate-driven and the closures leg the most size-driven of the four.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
13 closures | 1.26 per 100k jobs | 34 of 392 | 242 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
177 notices | 1.16% | 4 of 386 | 9 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$3.10bn | 11.65% | 21 of 393 | 52 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
6 loan records | 8.58% | 28 of 335 | 53 of 335 | elevated 2026-07-29
|
In San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, elevated distress signals include bank-distressed CRE, CMBS special servicing, store closures, and WARN notices. Bank-distressed CRE stands at $3.10bn, with 17.1% of bank CRE at risk (90th percentile), while CMBS special servicing UPB is $562.0mm, equal to 8.6% of metro UPB. Additionally, there were 13 store closures and 177 WARN notices over the past year. The reading is unavailable for distressed bank assets, which are listed as 0 (no dollar figure provided), and the number of CMBS loans in special servicing is 6 but without a stated dollar amount. The overall phase is confirmed at "peak," with the convergence score at 4.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ctbc Bank Corp. (Usa) CA | 34.4% | 214% total 252%
|
🔒 | 2.90% |
| Pinnacle Bank CA | 76.3% | 228% total 409%
|
🔒 | 1.52% |
| Citizens Business Bank, National Association CA | 14.6% | 281% total 406%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| Evertrust Bank CA | 28.6% | 211% total 253%
|
🔒 | 0.44% |
| First Commercial Bank (Usa) CA | 19.2% | 163% total 191%
|
🔒 | 1.96% |
| Safra National Bank Of New York NY | 1.6% | 102% total 102%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Fremont Bank CA | 6.9% | 217% total 329%
|
🔒 | 0.43% |
| Everbank, National Association FL | 0.4% | 169% total 175%
|
🔒 | 1.03% |
| First Bank MO | 1.0% | 184% total 273%
|
🔒 | 0.09% |
| State Bank Of India (California) CA | 12.0% | 276% total 327%
|
🔒 | 1.91% |
| Open Bank CA | 3.7% | 255% total 458%
|
🔒 | 3.02% |
| Gbc International Bank CA | 13.5% | 269% total 379%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| Community West Bank CA | 0.4% | 298% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.56% |
| Metropolitan Bank CA | 13.5% | 340% total 421%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| United Business Bank CA | 9.8% | 402% total 555%
|
🔒 | 0.48% |
| West Coast Community Bank CA | 8.8% | 362% total 474%
|
🔒 | 0.58% |
| Golden Bank, National Association TX | 7.0% | 327% total 505%
|
🔒 | 2.27% |
| Poppy Bank CA | 4.3% | 360% total 557%
|
🔒 | 2.15% |
| Commercial Bank Of California CA | 3.0% | 470% total 592%
|
🔒 | 0.02% |
| Mechanics Bank CA | 0.8% | 340% total 362%
|
🔒 | 0.30% |
| Exchange Bank CA | 0.0% | 225% total 255%
|
🔒 | 0.59% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle Bank | $482M | 228% total 409%
|
1.52% | 🔒 |
| Avidbank | $1.1B | 265% total 325%
|
1.35% | 🔒 |
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara screens tight on bank refinancing capacity: its CMBS maturing within 24 months stands at $1.86bn against $455.3mm of room after committed draws, a wall-to-room ratio of 4.09 — ranking 20 of 275 counting from the most strained. That strain reading comes with a caveat, since 11 banks are excluded here against 21 qualifying, and a high ratio can reflect invisibility of local credit rather than distress. The $1.86bn wall is CMBS only, so 4.09 is an upper bound on the share local banks would have to absorb.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVB | — | +4.6% | 96.6% | +4.3% | 2026-07-30 |
| ESS | — | +4.4% | 96.8% | — | 2026-07-30 |
Over the trailing 365 days, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA has recorded 115 WARN notices, 11,188 jobs affected, 19 store closures, and 61 CRE-likely bankruptcies in the states where this metro's collateral sits — a state-level proxy, not a metro-native count, so treat the bankruptcy figure with that grain in mind. The jobs figure is a floor, since notices stating no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs; closures reflect only approved rows, and the bankruptcy count is not comparable across the 2026-09-16 coverage change.