Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Raleigh-Cary, NC

For Raleigh-Cary, NC, distress is concentrated in exactly one place: the mom-and-pop retail tail. Store closures are elevated at 8 closures (rank 49 of 392 by count, but just 238th by rate at a 1.27 per 100k jobs pace), while WARN layoff notices sit quiet at 2 notices (0.04%). That disagreement—hot on closures, cold on filings—points to failures below the compelled-disclosure floor: small operators no filing regime can see. Lender stress is the other hot reading: bank CRE over the noncurrent line sits at $764.9 million, elevated purely on size (rank 45 by count, 214th by rate at 2.94%), with the structural caveat that only 2.6% of these dollars are at banks whose exposure needs no deposit allocation. Four of six pairs disagree overall, which is a statement about which mechanisms are running—not a severity signal. CMBS special servicing reads zero for securitized loans, and WARN and the tape agree quiet, so no office or national-capital stress is showing; the story here is a big retail and lender book that is stressed by size, not per unit of itself.

Raleigh-Cary, NC shows two elevated distress signals: bank-distressed CRE (with distressed lender CRE at $764.9mm and a bank CRE at-risk share at the 90th percentile of 13.9%) and closures (8 store closures and 2 WARN notices in the past year). Bank CRE allocation is 2.6% of 0 distressed bank assets, while total bank CRE exposure is $26.02bn (a reading that is broadly neutral). On the CMBS side, special servicing is immaterial: $0.0mm UPB represents 0.0% of metro UPB, with 0 loans in special servicing. The convergence reads 2, and the phase is "early" — the ground is deteriorating but CRE credit has not yet been hit. Note: a reading for CMBS special servicing is available but shows no stress; no additional distress signals beyond these two are elevated.

On the face of it Raleigh-Cary, NC reads as more strained than the typical metro: with $157.8mm maturing across 12 loans against $97.9mm of room after committed draws, its wall_to_room of 1.61 ranks 46 of 275 counting from the most strained and sits above the median of 0.24. That reading comes with two important qualifications — the $646.5mm of committed draws is what pushes the ratio from a comfortable 0.40 (on $397.7mm of room before committed) to 1.61, and the room itself is built on 16 banks_qualifying while 8 are excluded here on deposit-footprint grounds; the platform reports explained_by_exclusion as false, but the statewide distressed_share of 0.0% and the $550.7mm of cmbs_upb indicate no credit event is visible, so the strain signal should be treated as an upper bound rather than a demonstrated refinancing shortfall.

Over the trailing 365 window, Raleigh-Cary, NC shows 5 store closures, 2 WARN notices, and 370 jobs affected — the latter a floor, since notices stating no headcount count but contribute 0 jobs — alongside 3 CRE bankruptcies, though that figure is a STATE PROXY rather than a metro-native count and is not comparable across the 2026-09-16 coverage change. Any metro-native reading of CRE distress on the ground is unavailable from these figures.