Raleigh-Cary carries $551M of CMBS across 36 loans, and as of July 2026 none of it is distressed — nothing in special servicing, nothing 60-plus days delinquent. That 0.0% rate has been flat in the filed record, and the credit around it looks intact: median DSCR sits at 1.91, only four banks touch this market and none register as distressed or on early warning, and metro unemployment is 3.2%, down 0.2 points year over year. Hospitality is the largest single exposure at $123M — a sector running a 6.1% distress rate nationally, but 0.0% here.
The scheduling story is where attention belongs. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2029, when $175M — 32% of the entire book — comes due, dwarfing the lighter slugs stacked in 2027, 2028 and 2033. That concentration carries no distress today, but it is the year that will test this market's clean record.
Beneath the loan tape, the ground is not silent. Raleigh logged nine on-the-ground distress events over the past year — seven store closures and two layoff notices totaling 370 jobs. That activity has not surfaced in the servicer-declared numbers, and for now the gap between the filed record and the street runs in the metro's favor.
For Raleigh-Cary, NC, distress is concentrated in exactly one place: the mom-and-pop retail tail. Store closures are elevated at 8 closures (rank 49 of 392 by count, but just 238th by rate at a 1.27 per 100k jobs pace), while WARN layoff notices sit quiet at 2 notices (0.04%). That disagreement—hot on closures, cold on filings—points to failures below the compelled-disclosure floor: small operators no filing regime can see. Lender stress is the other hot reading: bank CRE over the noncurrent line sits at $764.9 million, elevated purely on size (rank 45 by count, 214th by rate at 2.94%), with the structural caveat that only 2.6% of these dollars are at banks whose exposure needs no deposit allocation. Four of six pairs disagree overall, which is a statement about which mechanisms are running—not a severity signal. CMBS special servicing reads zero for securitized loans, and WARN and the tape agree quiet, so no office or national-capital stress is showing; the story here is a big retail and lender book that is stressed by size, not per unit of itself.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
8 closures | 1.27 per 100k jobs | 49 of 392 | 238 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
2 notices | 0.04% | 166 of 386 | 210 of 386 | quiet trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$764.9mm | 2.94% | 45 of 393 | 214 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
0 loan records | 0% | 220 of 335 | 220 of 335 | quiet 2026-07-29
|
Raleigh-Cary, NC shows two elevated distress signals: bank-distressed CRE (with distressed lender CRE at $764.9mm and a bank CRE at-risk share at the 90th percentile of 13.9%) and closures (8 store closures and 2 WARN notices in the past year). Bank CRE allocation is 2.6% of 0 distressed bank assets, while total bank CRE exposure is $26.02bn (a reading that is broadly neutral). On the CMBS side, special servicing is immaterial: $0.0mm UPB represents 0.0% of metro UPB, with 0 loans in special servicing. The convergence reads 2, and the phase is "early" — the ground is deteriorating but CRE credit has not yet been hit. Note: a reading for CMBS special servicing is available but shows no stress; no additional distress signals beyond these two are elevated.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Fidelity Bank NC | 25.9% | 206% total 373%
|
🔒 | 0.47% |
| Townebank VA | 10.2% | 249% total 345%
|
🔒 | 0.19% |
| North State Bank NC | 92.5% | 277% total 498%
|
🔒 | 0.19% |
| Southern Bank And Trust Company NC | 3.3% | 158% total 320%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| Hometrust Bank NC | 4.6% | 235% total 324%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| Southern First Bank SC | 6.0% | 236% total 397%
|
🔒 | 0.23% |
| First Bank NC | 2.8% | 280% total 366%
|
🔒 | 0.40% |
| First Federal Bank NC | 17.5% | 166% total 240%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Farmers & Merchants Bank NC | 3.1% | 210% total 249%
|
🔒 | 0.79% |
| Atlantic Union Bank VA | 0.2% | 264% total 363%
|
🔒 | 0.42% |
| Peoples Bank NC | 1.1% | 215% total 338%
|
🔒 | 0.16% |
| First Bank VA | 1.2% | 283% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Ks Bank, Inc. NC | 72.2% | 425% total 606%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| First Carolina Bank NC | 27.5% | 448% total 515%
|
🔒 | 1.07% |
| Benchmark Community Bank VA | 4.9% | 321% total 403%
|
🔒 | 0.17% |
| Providence Bank NC | 3.0% | 419% total 551%
|
🔒 | 0.13% |
| Carter Bank & Trust VA | 1.1% | 395% total 423%
|
🔒 | 0.84% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company | $38.8B | 89% total 158%
|
2.09% | 🔒 |
| The Fidelity Bank | $2.1B | 206% total 373%
|
0.47% | 🔒 |
| North State Bank | $649M | 277% total 498%
|
0.19% | 🔒 |
| Ks Bank, Inc. | $484M | 425% total 606%
|
0.06% | 🔒 |
In Raleigh-Cary, NC, the $125.6mm CMBS wall maturing within 24 months stands at 1.25 times the room available after committed draws, ranking the metro 47 of 270 from the most strained. That room—$100.6mm—comes from 17 qualifying banks, which is insufficient to cover the full wall before committed draws of $389.4mm are factored in, though the distressed share is 0.0%. Uniquely, this strain is largely an artifact of the 8 excluded banks (nationals, card, and charter institutions) that do not disclose local deposit footprints, meaning the credit is likely less constrained than the ratio implies. Still, the reading is above the median of 0.20, indicating more strain than typical, though the small maturing balance of $125.6mm suggests manageable scale if local banks can absorb the shortfall.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | -8.0% | -0.1% | 95.9% | -0.4% | 2026-07-30 |
| MAA | -2.0% | -1.6% | 95.3% | -1.5% | 2026-07-29 |
In the Raleigh-Cary, NC metro over a 365-day window, the ground truth shows minimal distress signals: there were 2 CRE-related bankruptcy filings (a state proxy, since filings are attributed by the filer’s state, not property location), 2 WARN notices affecting 370 jobs, and 8 store closures. These figures are all verified and reflect only approved, ZIP-matched events—not the higher convergence board counts—but they indicate no major disruption beyond routine churn.