Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington runs $6.7 billion of CMBS across 266 loans, and the headline read is calmer than the sector mix suggests. Office is the largest book at $2.1 billion, yet it carries a distress rate of 6.8% — well under the 11.1% national office mark. The elevated risk sits elsewhere: multifamily, at $1.2 billion, posts a 9.8% distress rate, above its own 7.9% national benchmark. For a metro whose reputation is written in office square footage, the sharper read is on the residential book.
In the filed record, distress is flat at 4.8% as of July 2026, against a median DSCR of 1.61. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2028, with $1.6 billion coming due that year — a concentration worth marking even as near-term distress holds steady. By comparison, $1.7 billion matures inside the next 24 months.
On the ground, the past year brought 129 distress events — 84 store closures and 45 layoff notices touching 8,191 jobs — set against a metro unemployment rate of 4.4% in August 2026. The signals are mixed rather than one-directional: a contained CMBS distress rate and a below-national office book on one side, a maturity wall in 2028 and an above-national multifamily rate on the other.
In Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, distress is broad and elevated across all four independent feeds, with all 6 pairs reading hot and 0 disagreeing or quiet, and 4 of 4 signals elevated. Store closures sit at 74 closures (2.92 per 100k jobs, 5th of 392 by count vs. 91st by rate), while WARN layoff notices total 44 (0.25% of employment, 21st by count, 94th by rate). Bank CRE over the noncurrent line reaches $4,864.5mm, or 6.71% of the metro's lent CRE (12th by count, 111th by rate), and securitized loans in special servicing total 93 rows, or 4.56% of the securitized balance read (2nd by count, 74th by rate; the bank figure is an allocation by branch deposits, and the CMBS value is a floor measured over 19.4% of special-servicing rows — not a precise ceiling on stress).
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
74 closures | 2.92 per 100k jobs | 5 of 392 | 91 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
44 notices | 0.25% | 21 of 386 | 94 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$4.86bn | 6.71% | 12 of 393 | 111 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
93 loan records | 4.56% | 2 of 335 | 74 of 335 | elevated
floor 2026-07-29
|
In Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, the elevated distress signals are bank distressed CRE, CMBS special servicing, closures, and WARN notices. On the credit side, bank distressed CRE exposure stands at $4.86bn (with a 90th-percentile at-risk share of 13.1% of $72.46bn bank CRE), and CMBS special servicing UPB is $312.0mm (a 4.6% share of metro UPB). Real-economy signals are also firing: 74 one-year store closures and 44 WARN notices. Notably, the CMBS dollar figure is a floor, as measured over 19.4% of the metro's 93 special-servicing rows; the rest carry no balance. The reading on distressed bank assets is 0 (with 0 distressed banks), and the bank allocation share is 4.7%. The convergence score is 4, indicating multiple signals aligning. Not readable from the provided data: any non-bank lender CRE distress detail beyond the stated figures, or a distinct measure for bank CRE at risk beyond the p90 percentile—no alternative percentiles are available.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmington Savings Fund Society, Fsb DE | 90.7% | 225% total 301%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| Fulton Bank, National Association PA | 31.1% | 184% total 283%
|
🔒 | 0.79% |
| Firstrust Savings Bank PA | 95.3% | 245% total 306%
|
🔒 | 0.74% |
| Penn Community Bank PA | 96.9% | 229% total 278%
|
🔒 | 0.82% |
| Univest Bank And Trust Co. PA | 87.7% | 264% total 373%
|
🔒 | 0.22% |
| Parke Bank NJ | 75.4% | 254% total 306%
|
🔒 | 0.19% |
| Ambler Savings Bank PA | 83.5% | 113% total 174%
|
🔒 | 0.04% |
| Phoenixville Federal Bank And Trust PA | 100.0% | 176% total 237%
|
🔒 | 0.38% |
| Newfield National Bank NJ | 57.8% | 174% total 300%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Asian Bank PA | 100.0% | 251% total 337%
|
🔒 | 1.22% |
| Customers Bank PA | 1.9% | 179% total 253%
|
🔒 | 0.30% |
| Franklin Bank NJ | 91.0% | 136% total 211%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Century Savings Bank NJ | 33.6% | 131% total 225%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| The Ephrata National Bank PA | 9.4% | 104% total 170%
|
🔒 | 0.93% |
| Haddon Savings Bank NJ | 100.0% | 192% total 225%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Quaint Oak Bank PA | 77.2% | 232% total 503%
|
🔒 | 1.10% |
| Iron Workers Savings Bank PA | 100.0% | 145% total 265%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Wayne Bank PA | 8.7% | 201% total 359%
|
🔒 | 2.24% |
| The First National Bank Of Elmer NJ | 85.6% | 237% total 440%
|
🔒 | 1.30% |
| Citizens & Northern Bank PA | 17.1% | 262% total 366%
|
🔒 | 2.56% |
| Harleysville Bank PA | 89.0% | 284% total 291%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bank Of Bird-In-Hand PA | 1.9% | 115% total 226%
|
🔒 | 0.08% |
| Harford Bank MD | 8.3% | 235% total 419%
|
🔒 | 1.52% |
| Cnb Bank PA | 1.1% | 269% total 341%
|
🔒 | 0.61% |
| Peoples Security Bank And Trust Company PA | 3.9% | 290% total 389%
|
🔒 | 0.33% |
| Sharon Bank PA | 100.0% | 361% total 435%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Resource Bank PA | 100.0% | 454% total 620%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| Meridian Bank PA | 99.2% | 306% total 448%
|
🔒 | 4.33% |
| Qnb Bank PA | 84.9% | 332% total 436%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| Artisans' Bank DE | 67.8% | 302% total 400%
|
🔒 | 0.40% |
| Hyperion Bank PA | 54.7% | 348% total 363%
|
🔒 | 0.91% |
| The Bank Of Princeton NJ | 38.9% | 382% total 509%
|
🔒 | 1.09% |
| Mid Penn Bank PA | 29.9% | 328% total 438%
|
🔒 | 0.25% |
| First Bank NJ | 28.3% | 339% total 486%
|
🔒 | 0.84% |
| First Citizens Community Bank PA | 24.6% | 320% total 401%
|
🔒 | 1.98% |
| Columbia Bank NJ | 12.0% | 350% total 405%
|
🔒 | 0.32% |
| S&t Bank PA | 11.0% | 309% total 339%
|
🔒 | 0.24% |
| Tompkins Community Bank NY | 6.3% | 323% total 392%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| First Commerce Bank NJ | 4.6% | 459% total 634%
|
🔒 | 0.41% |
| Oceanfirst Bank, National Association NJ | 3.5% | 384% total 456%
|
🔒 | 0.95% |
| Provident Bank NJ | 0.7% | 422% total 526%
|
🔒 | 0.59% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Bank | $1.1B | 306% total 448%
|
4.33% | 🔒 |
| Santander Bank, N.a. | $17.1B | 117% total 124%
|
3.20% | 🔒 |
| The First National Bank Of Elmer | $196M | 237% total 440%
|
1.30% | 🔒 |
| Quaint Oak Bank | $370M | 232% total 503%
|
1.10% | 🔒 |
| Artisans' Bank | $326M | 302% total 400%
|
0.40% | 🔒 |
| Sharon Bank | $72M | 361% total 435%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Franklin Bank | $77M | 136% total 211%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| The National Bank Of Malvern | $51M | 97% total 138%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
For Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, the visible maturity load looks manageable against qualifying bank capacity: $1.70bn of CMBS maturing across 64 loans against $4.78bn of room before committed construction draws and $2.44bn after, a wall-to-room reading of 0.70 (0.36 before committed draws), which ranks 70 of 275 counting from the most strained and sits above the median. That said, the reading is partial by construction — it covers CMBS maturing within 24 months only, room is a deposit-footprint proxy for lending capacity, and 6 banks are excluded here against 41 qualifying, so any local supply of credit outside that footprint is invisible rather than absent.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UDR | +4.5% | +4.4% | 97.0% | +4.4% | 2026-07-27 |
Over the recent 365-day window, the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD metro has logged 82 store closures, 45 WARN notices, and 8,191 jobs affected, alongside 101 CRE-likely bankruptcy filings — though that last figure is a state proxy rather than a metro-native count, and the jobs figure is a floor since notices stating no headcount contribute zero.