Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Modesto, CA

For Modesto, the overall picture is more nuanced than a simple yes or no. Of the six pairings across the four independent feeds, three pairs are quiet, three are in disagreement, and none are both elevated—meaning distress is not uniform.

The most notable signal is the 1 elevated reading out of four: layoff notices (WARN) are running hot, with 20 notices and a rate of 0.72% of employment, ranking 16th by rate. That single large-employer event is driving the disagreement between pairs—for instance, layoffs versus store closures reads as "a large-employer event rather than a retail one," and layoffs versus the securitized book shows "employers are cutting and the securitized book has not moved." In contrast, store closures (4 closures, 2.39 per 100k jobs), bank CRE ($171.4mm noncurrent, 7.62% rate), and securitized loans in special servicing (0 rows at 0.0%) are all reading low, and those three agree with each other (three quiet pairs).

So the distress here is employment-led, not yet showing up in bank or securitized CRE stress. The bank leg is an allocation by branch deposits (only 0.0% of dollars sit at single-metro lenders), and the securitized tape holds $360.0mm with zero special-servicing rows, so the property-level book is currently calm. The overall verdict: moderate concern driven by WARN, with the other three feeds quiet—a metro where employers are moving before lenders have booked anything.

In Modesto, CA, the only distress signal currently elevated is the WARN notices reading: 20 notices over the past year. Bank CRE at risk is 2.2% (at the 90th percentile), but there are 0 distressed banks and distressed lender CRE is $171.4mm. CMBS special servicing UPB is $0.0mm (a 0.0% share of metro UPB). A reading on store closures is unavailable from the provided figures, and the bank allocation exact share is 0.0%. Overall, the reading is "immaterial" because there is "little to no distressed CRE dollars behind the signals" — the phase is "early," described as "the ground is deteriorating but CRE credit has not yet been hit — the leading edge."

For Modesto, CA, the reading points to slack rather than strain: the CMBS wall maturing within 24 months is $35.6mm across 4 maturing_loans, against room_after_committed of $167.5mm at the 7 banks_qualifying institutions, giving a wall_to_room of 0.21 — below the median of 0.24 — or 0.16 on a room_before_committed basis of $223.2mm before $88.8mm in committed_draws; with a distressed_share of 0.0% and $336.5mm in cmbs_upb overall, the local banks appear to have capacity to absorb the visible maturities. Two caveats temper this: the wall is CMBS-only and is an upper bound on what local banks would have to absorb, and room is a deposit-footprint proxy, with banks_excluded_here at 1 against banks_qualifying at 7 — though explained_by_exclusion is false, so the exclusion does not appear to be driving the result here.

Over the trailing window_days of 365, Modesto, CA has recorded warn_notices of 18 WARN notices and store_closures of 5 approved closures on the ground; the layoff figure is a floor, since jobs_affected of 1,648 counts notices that state no headcount at zero. The cre_bankruptcies reading of 61 is a state-level proxy — CRE-likely filings in the states where this metro's collateral sits, not a metro-native count — so it should not be read as local distress, and because court-feed coverage widened on 2026-09-16, counts on either side of that date are not comparable.