Milwaukee-Waukesha carries $1.1 billion of CMBS across 79 loans, and the filed record has been rising — distress reached 5.6% as of July 2026. That is a modest book by national standards, and the pressure showing up in the servicing data is real rather than forecast: this is debt the servicer has already declared in special servicing or 60-plus days delinquent.
The metro's largest exposure is also its cleanest. Multifamily accounts for $446 million of the book at 0.0% distressed, against a 7.6% national rate for the sector — a notable contrast in a market where apartments are carrying the load elsewhere. Retail, the next-largest sector at roughly $300 million, likewise sits at 0.0% versus 2.7% nationally. The concentration to watch on the calendar is 2029, when $300 million comes due — 26% of the entire book — the heaviest single maturity year on the page.
On the ground, the metro logged 32 distress events over the past year — 19 store closures and 13 layoff notices — tied to 889 jobs. That real-economy record sits alongside a servicing rate that is climbing off a low base, the kind of divergence a credit desk watches rather than dismisses.
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI is showing early but uneven distress. Store closures sit at 17 closures (2.3 per 100k jobs) — elevated and ranked 28th of 392 by count, though a more moderate 136th by rate. WARN layoff notices are also elevated at 18 notices (0.14%), ranked 39th of 386 by count. The bank CRE leg is quiet at $137.0mm noncurrent (0.74%), and the CMBS tape shows just 2 special-servicing rows (5.57% of balance). Of six paired comparisons, four legs disagree — readings like "tenants are leaving and no lender balance sheet shows it yet" and "employment is going before any lender books it" — while one pair agrees hot (closures/WARN) and one agrees quiet (bank/CMBS). The key dynamic: real-economy stress is visible now, but it hasn't yet flowed through to lender balance sheets.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
17 closures | 2.3 per 100k jobs | 28 of 392 | 136 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
18 notices | 0.14% | 39 of 386 | 146 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$137.0mm | 0.74% | 142 of 393 | 302 of 393 | quiet
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
2 loan records | 5.57% | 66 of 335 | 68 of 335 | quiet 2026-07-29
|
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI, shows elevated signals around real-economy stress: 17 store closures and 18 WARN notices over the past year, with distress still in an early phase where CRE credit has yet to be hit. The special servicing reading is elevated, with CMBS special servicing UPB at $64.0mm (a 5.6% share of metro UPB), while bank CRE at risk sits at 22.4% (90th percentile), but bank CRE allocation is 31.6%, and distressed lender CRE exposure is $137.0mm with $0 in distressed bank assets. The convergence score is 2, indicating modest materiality — tens of millions of distressed CRE exposure. Readings that are unavailable: the share of bank CRE at risk is shown only at the 90th percentile, not as a broader distribution, and no comparison to prior periods or national benchmarks is provided; additionally, specific CMBS loan-level details (beyond the 2 loans in special servicing) and any bank-level capital stress figures are not stated.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Associated Bank, National Association WI | 23.7% | 183% total 215%
|
🔒 | 0.17% |
| Town Bank, National Association WI | 72.6% | 150% total 184%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bank Five Nine WI | 100.0% | 166% total 598%
|
🔒 | 2.20% |
| Great Midwest Bank, S.s.b. WI | 89.8% | 141% total 141%
|
🔒 | 0.81% |
| Waukesha State Bank WI | 100.0% | 221% total 320%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| Johnson Bank WI | 17.3% | 218% total 286%
|
🔒 | 0.01% |
| North Shore Bank WI | 67.3% | 250% total 265%
|
🔒 | 0.05% |
| National Exchange Bank And Trust WI | 10.8% | 133% total 157%
|
🔒 | 0.21% |
| First Federal Bank Of Wisconsin WI | 100.0% | 174% total 225%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Ixonia Bank WI | 30.2% | 164% total 254%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| The Port Washington State Bank WI | 100.0% | 264% total 381%
|
🔒 | 0.03% |
| Citizens Bank WI | 90.1% | 277% total 342%
|
🔒 | 0.13% |
| Horicon Bank WI | 23.1% | 235% total 386%
|
🔒 | 0.31% |
| Waterstone Bank, Ssb WI | 100.0% | 294% total 324%
|
🔒 | 0.03% |
| Byline Bank IL | 0.8% | 129% total 243%
|
🔒 | 0.89% |
| Bank First, N.a. WI | 4.3% | 240% total 383%
|
🔒 | 0.87% |
| Pyramax Bank, Fsb WI | 100.0% | 280% total 346%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Peoples State Bank WI | 9.8% | 233% total 401%
|
🔒 | 1.71% |
| Collins State Bank WI | 25.7% | 238% total 444%
|
🔒 | 0.47% |
| State Bank Of Chilton WI | 10.5% | 248% total 447%
|
🔒 | 0.72% |
| Alerus Financial, National Association ND | 0.3% | 260% total 378%
|
🔒 | 0.07% |
| Forte Bank WI | 100.0% | 357% total 462%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Westbury Bank WI | 100.0% | 340% total 448%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| The Equitable Bank, S.s.b. WI | 86.6% | 418% total 434%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Tri City National Bank WI | 83.2% | 348% total 415%
|
🔒 | 0.54% |
| Cibm Bank IL | 23.1% | 319% total 421%
|
🔒 | 0.94% |
| Marathon Bank WI | 15.0% | 361% total 384%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Business Bank WI | 14.1% | 340% total 423%
|
🔒 | 0.76% |
| Bank Cmg WI | 1.9% | 333% total 386%
|
🔒 | 0.08% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Five Nine | $1.6B | 166% total 598%
|
2.20% | 🔒 |
| Waukesha State Bank | $598M | 221% total 320%
|
0.12% | 🔒 |
| Forte Bank | $217M | 357% total 462%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Town Bank, National Association | $860M | 150% total 184%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Spring Bank | $248M | 286% total 482%
|
1.74% | 🔒 |
| Great Midwest Bank, S.s.b. | $245M | 141% total 141%
|
0.81% | 🔒 |
| Tri City National Bank | $930M | 348% total 415%
|
0.54% | 🔒 |
| Citizens Bank | $551M | 277% total 342%
|
0.13% | 🔒 |
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI looks to be in solid shape on refinancing capacity, ranking 164 of 270 most-strained metros, which is below the median ratio of 0.20. With 29 qualifying banks and 5 excluded, the room before committed draws sits at $3.30bn, and after committed draws of $1.84bn, the room narrows to $1.83bn. Against the $265.3mm maturing CMBS wall, the wall-to-room ratio comes in at 0.14 after committed draws and 0.08 before them—both comfortably slack. Roughly 5.6% of the maturing balance is distressed, and the 11 maturing loans totaling $265.3mm face no near-term absorption issues given ample bank capacity. Distressed share at 5.6% is modest, though the reading is an upper bound since the wall only captures CMBS maturities. Overall, banks here have the room to refinance the coming wall without strain.
In the last 365 days, Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI has logged 18 store closures, 14 WARN notices affecting 937 jobs, and 1 CRE-related bankruptcy filing.