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Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · AR, MS, TN
The read
$790M of CMBS across 45 loans. Multifamily carries the highest distress rate (29.9%, above the 7.9% national, 3.8× national). The heaviest maturity load lands in 2032 ($206M, 26% of the book). 34 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (2,444 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
Memphis Multifamily Carries the Strain, and 2032 Is Where the Book Piles Up
Memphis sits on $790M of CMBS spread across 45 loans, and the pressure point is not office but rental housing. Multifamily carries a 29.9% distress rate — the highest of any sector here, well above the 7.9% national mark and 3.8 times the national rate. For a book of this size, that is a concentration special servicers and debt funds cannot treat as noise; the metro's overall CMBS distress rate stands at 6.2%.
The refinancing calendar skews late. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2032, when $206M comes due — 26% of the entire book — with lighter towers in 2028, 2029 and 2031. Among the 13 banks with local CRE exposure, one is flagged distressed and four more sit on early-warning watch.
The on-the-ground record tells the tenant-side story the loan tape doesn't. Over the past year Memphis logged 34 distress events — 18 store closures and 16 layoff notices — totaling 2,444 jobs. Area unemployment reads 4.6% as of August 2026, up 0.1 point year over year.
Written 2026-10-27
CMBS Distressed UPB
$49M / 6.2%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$190M
Banks HQ’d Here (stressed)
1 / 13
Bank Early-Warning
4 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
18
Layoff Notices (1y)
16 / 2,444 jobs
0.46% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
45 / $790M
Unemployment · Aug 2026
4.6%
+0.1pp yr
How much CRE distress is there in Memphis, TN-MS-AR right now?
In Memphis, TN-MS-AR, three of the four distress signals are elevated, with 3 pairs both elevated and 3 pairs disagreeing out of 6 total pairs. Store closures are elevated at 14 closures, ranking 32nd of 392 by count and 108th by rate (2.62 per 100k jobs). Layoff notices are elevated at 20 notices, ranking 34th of 386 by count and 30th by rate (0.49% of employment). Bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line is elevated at $557.3 million, ranking 55th of 393 by count but only 200th by rate (3.25%)—elevated by size, not by rate, so this is a statement about how big the metro is. Securitized loans in special servicing are not elevated, at 4 rows with a rate of 6.19% and rankings of 42nd by count and 64th by rate of 335 metros. The disagreements are structural: closures are hot while the securitized book is quiet (retail failing on buildings the tape does not hold), WARN is hot while the tape is quiet (employers cutting but the securitized book has not moved), and bank CRE is hot while the tape is cold (lenders stressed on a book the tape cannot see). No reading is unavailable.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
14 closures | 2.62 per 100k jobs | 32 of 392 | 108 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
20 notices | 0.49% | 34 of 386 | 30 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$557.3mm | 3.25% | 55 of 393 | 200 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
4 loan records | 6.19% | 42 of 335 | 64 of 335 | quiet 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
3 both elevated
0 both quiet
3 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
3 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.
Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes.
Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro.
A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason.
elevated by size, not by rate — bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line clear a flat count threshold while sitting below the median of their own rate ranking. Any reading that leans on them is a statement about how big this metro is.
Store closures: divided by 535,002 jobs
— all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading (trailing 365 days to today).
Layoff notices (WARN): divided by 596,036 employed
— employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted (trailing 365 days to today).
Bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line: divided by $17,123.8 mm
— bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits (2026-03-31).
Securitized loans in special servicing: divided by $791.0 mm
— current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio (2026-07-29).
Written from the figures above · CBSA 32820 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
· Ask your own question →
Which distress signals are elevated in Memphis, TN-MS-AR, and which cannot be read?
In Memphis, TN-MS-AR, the elevated distress signals are bank-distressed CRE, closures, and WARN notices: bank CRE at risk at the 90th percentile is 25.8%, with distressed lender CRE of $557.3mm. Additionally, the metro has seen 14 store closures and 20 WARN notices over the past year. The reading for CMBS special-servicing activity is unavailable — while the special-servicing UPB is $49.0mm, the share of metro UPB is not provided.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $49.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 6.2%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $17.12bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 25.8%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $557.3mm
- Assets at those lenders
- $0.30bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 11.0%
- Signals reading elevated
- bank CRE over the noncurrent line, store closures, WARN layoff notices
- Legs agreeing
- 3
- Phase
- early
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 4
- Distressed banks
- 1
- Store closures (past year)
- 14
- WARN notices (past year)
- 20
the ground is deteriorating but CRE credit has not yet been hit — the leading edge
tens of millions of distressed CRE exposure
the ground is wobbling (closures / layoffs) but little CRE-credit distress sits behind it yet — a real-economy signal, not (yet) a CRE-credit event
Written from the figures above · CBSA 32820 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 28 Aug 2026
· Ask your own question →
Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Aug 2026
4.6%
+0.1pp yr
Last 24 months
3.8%4.9%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
This metro's CMBS runs 6.2% distressed where its own property mix predicts 5.3% — $7M more than this book would carry at the rate each property type runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted and excluding this metro. The gap is measured; the cause is not. 1 of 1 property types here run a higher distress rate than the national average for that type (the tick on each bar).
Elimination — does the gap survive a control?
Each row re-prices this metro's book on a finer cell — its own property types, then those types split by loan size, then by vintage — always at the rate that cell runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted. A gap that shrinks toward zero is explained by the control; one that stays has ruled it out. What is measured is what survives, not a cause.
property mix alone
+0.9pp
… and loan size held fixed
+1.1pp
there is no gap here to explain
… and vintage held fixed
-0.4pp
there is no gap here to explain
The largest single contributor is Multifamily: 13 loans, $152M, running 29.9% where the same type runs 7.8% elsewhere — worth 4.3pp of this metro's own rate.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$190M — 24% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Too few loans here are distressed for a quarterly rate to be a rate, so no direction is stated. The quarters that can be read are shown below.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $539M of the metro's $790M; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$190M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 27 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$1.2B more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.16× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.13×.
Regional Bank Room
$1.2B
After Committed Draws
$783M / −35%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.16×
Banks In Footprint
27 / 1 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $554M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $421M
comes out of the room above, leaving $783M,
with 8 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $133M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 06-26 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
2 of 27
are past it on drawn balances alone, and
17 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 27 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evolve Bank & Trust AR | 94.7% | 101% total 154%
|
🔒 | 1.52% |
| The Bank Of Fayette County TN | 79.7% | 145% total 279%
|
🔒 | 1.16% |
| Independent Bank TN | 29.7% | 114% total 138%
|
🔒 | 2.84% |
| Fidelity Bank AR | 98.4% | 167% total 214%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Trustmark Bank MS | 6.1% | 237% total 298%
|
🔒 | 0.17% |
| The Park National Bank OH | 5.6% | 197% total 270%
|
🔒 | 0.81% |
| Patriot Bank TN | 100.0% | 182% total 279%
|
🔒 | 0.71% |
| Bank3 TN | 78.3% | 209% total 328%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Security Bank MS | 37.2% | 189% total 298%
|
🔒 | 0.20% |
| Bankfirst Financial Services MS | 11.5% | 219% total 317%
|
🔒 | 0.32% |
| Bankplus MS | 5.4% | 235% total 371%
|
🔒 | 0.63% |
| Southern Bancorp Bank AR | 6.5% | 174% total 246%
|
🔒 | 1.17% |
| Banktennessee TN | 64.0% | 236% total 286%
|
🔒 | 1.24% |
| Planters Bank & Trust Company MS | 13.3% | 236% total 301%
|
🔒 | 0.61% |
| First Financial Bank AR | 6.5% | 132% total 201%
|
🔒 | 4.49% |
| Community Bank Of Mississippi MS | 4.8% | 202% total 310%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| Guaranty Bank And Trust Company MS | 20.7% | 272% total 368%
|
🔒 | 1.05% |
| Firstbank TN | 2.1% | 269% total 386%
|
🔒 | 0.97% |
| Story Bank Dba Story Financial Partners MS | 14.2% | 244% total 366%
|
🔒 | 0.79% |
| First National Bank Of Eastern Arkansas AR | 15.9% | 220% total 252%
|
🔒 | 0.15% |
| The Citizens National Bank Of Meridian MS | 6.7% | 248% total 334%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| Security Bank And Trust Company TN | 2.4% | 237% total 277%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Insouth Bank TN | 53.0% | 295% total 400%
|
🔒 | 3.53% |
| Decatur County Bank TN | 3.2% | 202% total 274%
|
🔒 | 0.97% |
| Partners Bank AR | 11.6% | 288% total 361%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Choice Bank MS | 4.1% | 281% total 351%
|
🔒 | 0.01% |
| Paragon Bank TN | 79.1% | 321% total 423%
|
🔒 | 0.23% |
Not counted — 19 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Regions Bank AL · The Huntington National Bank OH · Truist Bank NC · Bank Of America, National Association NC · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · Bank Of Holly Springs MS · Bank Of Bartlett TN · Commercial Bank & Trust Co. TN · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Unity Bank Of Mississippi MS · Fsnb, National Association OK
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
First Horizon Bank TN · Pinnacle Bank TN · Renasant Bank MS · Liberty Bank And Trust Company LA · Woodforest National Bank TX · Simmons Bank AR · Servisfirst Bank AL
booked here — books nearly all deposits to one branch — a charter address, not a footprint
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2026) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
315 banks holding $263.8B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of Holly Springs | $168M | 95% total 219%
|
3.10% | 🔒 |
| Independent Bank | $270M | 114% total 138%
|
2.84% | 🔒 |
| Evolve Bank & Trust | $258M | 101% total 154%
|
1.52% | 🔒 |
| The Bank Of Fayette County | $300M | 145% total 279%
|
1.16% | 🔒 |
| Banktennessee | $190M | 236% total 286%
|
1.24% | 🔒 |
| First Horizon Bank | $22.5B | 143% total 235%
|
1.12% | 🔒 |
| Patriot Bank | $128M | 182% total 279%
|
0.71% | 🔒 |
| Unity Bank Of Mississippi | $88M | 69% total 282%
|
0.28% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Memphis, TN-MS-AR have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
Memphis looks adequately served: with a wall_to_room of 0.24 against $186.5mm of maturing CMBS across 7 maturing_loans, the metro ranks 139 of 275 and is LEVEL WITH the median, and the 27 banks_qualifying (against banks_excluded_here of 8) have room_after_committed of $782.5mm — roughly four times the wall — so local banks appear to have the capacity to refinance it, subject to the caveat that room_is_a_proxy and wall_is_cmbs_only, with the reading on distressed_share at 6.2%.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $186.5mm
- … across this many loans
- 7
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $1.20bn
- Committed construction draws
- $554.0mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $782.5mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.24
- Rank, most strained
- 139
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 275
- … before committed draws
- 0.15
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 27
- … excluded from the calculation
- 8
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 6.2%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $790.4mm
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.24 across the ranked metros.
0.24 is LEVEL WITH the median of 0.24, so this metro is as strained as the typical ranked metro
139 of 275, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.
The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros.
The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.
A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here.
Written from the figures above · CBSA 32820 · capacity_metro · last changed 25 Oct 2026
· Ask your own question →
Apartment-REIT Operating Read — same-store disclosures for this metro · as of 2026-07-29Set against the loan book →
Same-Store NOI
-12.1%
Same-Store Revenue
-1.1%
Occupancy
94.6%
Rent Growth
-0.7%
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAA | -12.1% | -1.1% | 94.6% | -0.7% | 2026-07-29 |
Same-store operating results disclosed by public apartment REITs (AVB · EQR · ESS · MAA · CPT · UDR) for this market in their quarterly supplements. Directional market context — an operating trend, not a Verstavo score.
On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
34 local distress events in the past year (2,444 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2028-07-01
CLOSURE
Scheduled · Memphis
2026-10-15
CLOSURE
Memphis
2026-09-26
CLOSURE
Memphis
2026-09-04
CLOSURE
Memphis
2026-08-18
CLOSURE
Memphis
2026-08-14
CLOSURE
Memphis
2026-08-04
LAYOFF
119 jobs · Shelby County
2026-07-07
LAYOFF
103 jobs · Shelby County
2026-06-30
CLOSURE
Memphis
2026-06-17
LAYOFF
208 jobs · Shelby County
2026-06-15
LAYOFF
75 jobs · Shelby County
2026-06-08
LAYOFF
117 jobs · Shelby County
2026-05-31
CLOSURE
Memphis
2026-05-04
LAYOFF
75 jobs · Fayette County
2026-05-03
CLOSURE
Cordova
What has actually happened on the ground in Memphis, TN-MS-AR recently?
Over the trailing 365 days, the Memphis, TN-MS-AR record shows 18 store closures and 16 warn notices, with 2,444 jobs affected — a figure that is a floor, since notices stating no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs. CRE-likely bankruptcies in the states where this metro's collateral sits stand at 0, though this is a state proxy rather than a metro-native count and is not comparable across the 2026-09-16 coverage change.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 18
- WARN layoff notices
- 16
- Jobs on those notices
- 2,444
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 0
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — a court case counts in its filing district and an SEC 8-K in the filer's state, not where the property is, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count. Each court case is counted once even when both PACER and CourtListener carry it. A court case's state is its filing district; an SEC 8-K or news item carries the filer's state. Coverage widened to both court feeds on 2026-09-16, so counts before and after that date are not comparable.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 32820 · geo_events · last changed 25 Oct 2026
· Ask your own question →
What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read — one page for every market we cover. The platform goes loan‑by‑loan inside it: which buildings carry the stress, when their debt comes due, and your own portfolio benchmarked against the market you are standing in.