Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · KY, TX
The read
$7.6B of CMBS across 343 loans. Multifamily is both the largest book ($2.3B) and the most distressed (18.4% vs 7.6% national). Distress is rising in the filed record — 8.2% as of 2026-07. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2031 ($1.9B, 25% of the book). 62 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (3,577 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
Multifamily, Not Office, Carries the Distress in Houston
Houston runs a $7.6 billion CMBS book across 343 loans, and the pressure sits where it usually doesn't. Multifamily is the metro's largest sector at $2.3 billion and also its most distressed, with 18.4% in special servicing or 60-plus days delinquent — more than double the 7.6% national rate for the sector. Office, at $2.0 billion, carries a 10.0% distress rate that actually runs below the 11.3% national mark, and retail at $1.9 billion is nearly pristine at 0.4% against a 2.7% national figure. This is a multifamily story wearing an office headline.
The filed record is turning higher: the metro's distress rate reads 8.2% as of July 2026, with a median DSCR of 1.68 still cushioning the book. On the ground, the past year brought 62 distress events — 33 store closures and 29 layoff notices totaling 3,577 jobs — against a local unemployment rate of 5.1%, up 0.3 points year over year.
The refinancing calendar is back-loaded. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2031 at $1.9 billion, a quarter of the book, though that vintage carries a comparatively light 4.3% distress rate. The nearer years are where the strain shows: $1.2 billion matures in 2030 at 11.9%, $1.0 billion in 2028 at 11.8%, and $1.6 billion in 2029 at 10.1%. Among the metro's 31 banks, two are already distressed and eleven sit on early-warning watch.
CMBS Distressed UPB
$639M / 8.4%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$1.2B
Local Banks (stressed)
2 / 31
Bank Early-Warning
11 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
33
Layoff Notices (1y)
29 / 3,577 jobs
0.13% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
343 / $7.6B
Unemployment · Jul 2026
5.1%
+0.3pp yr
How much CRE distress is there in Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX right now?
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX is showing broad-based commercial real estate distress, with all four gauges elevated: store closures at 29 closures (16th of 392 metros by count, though this is elevated by size rather than rate at 1.03 per 100k jobs and ranked 265th by rate), WARN layoff notices at 36 notices (23rd of 386, at 0.11% of employment, ranked 162nd by rate), bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line at $3,349.9mm (19th of 393, at a 5.77% noncurrent share, ranked 132nd by rate), and securitized loans in special servicing at 24 rows (6th of 335, at an 8.23% special-servicing share, ranked 56th by rate). All six pairwise comparisons read as in agreement on elevated distress with no disagreements and no unreadable legs. The warning signal is partly size-driven—the metro's high counts reflect its large scale rather than per-unit stress—but the rate ranks still place it in the top half on all metrics, and the consistent agreement across the property-level tenant, employment, bank, and CMBS feeds points to genuine, multi-mechanism stress rather than a single isolated weakness.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
29 closures | 1.03 per 100k jobs | 16 of 392 | 265 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
36 notices | 0.11% | 23 of 386 | 162 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$3.35bn | 5.77% | 19 of 393 | 132 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
24 loan records | 8.23% | 6 of 335 | 56 of 335 | elevated 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
6 both elevated
0 both quiet
0 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
4 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
{'coverage': "114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.", 'a_count_ranks_by_size': 'Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes. Every leg carries both ranks over ONE population; quote the rate beside the count.', 'disagreement_is_not_severity': 'Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro. The six pairs read different populations, and each note is a STRUCTURAL prior about those populations — nothing here measures a lead or a lag between two legs, so never report one as timing.', 'a_blind_leg_is_not_a_quiet_one': "A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason. Never report a blind leg as 'no distress'."}
{'fork': 'elevated by size, not by rate', 'note': 'store closures clear a flat count threshold while sitting below the median of their own rate ranking. Any reading that leans on them is a statement about how big this metro is.'}
{'leg': 'closures', 'unit': 'jobs', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 2818612, 'measures': 'store closures', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': "all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading"}
{'leg': 'warn', 'unit': 'employed', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 3716242, 'measures': 'layoff notices (WARN)', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': 'employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted'}
{'leg': 'bank', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-03-31', 'value': 58068.4, 'measures': 'bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': 'bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits'}
{'leg': 'cmbs', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-07-29', 'value': 7699.0, 'measures': 'securitized loans in special servicing', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': "current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio"}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 26420 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
· Ask your own question →
Which distress signals are elevated in Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX, and which cannot be read?
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX is showing elevated distress across both credit and real-economy signals. On the banking side, bank distressed CRE exposure is elevated at 10.3% (90th percentile) with 2 distressed banks holding 0.6 billion in distressed bank assets and $3.35bn in distressed lender CRE. CMBS special servicing is also elevated at $634.0mm in UPB, representing 8.2% of metro UPB, with 24 loans in special servicing. Ground-level distress is confirmed by 29 store closures and 36 WARN notices over the past year. Notably, the bank CRE allocation share is 7.3% and total bank CRE is $58.07bn. The reading for convergence is 4, indicating strong alignment across signals. There is no figure provided for a metric like a peak or phase-specific distress level beyond what is stated; that reading is unavailable.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $634.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 8.2%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $58.07bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 10.3%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $3.35bn
- Assets at those lenders
- $0.60bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 7.3%
- Signals reading elevated
- bank CRE over the noncurrent line, CMBS in special servicing, store closures, WARN layoff notices
- Legs agreeing
- 4
- Phase
- peak
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 24
- Distressed banks
- 2
- Store closures (past year)
- 29
- WARN notices (past year)
- 36
leading (real-economy) and realized (credit) signals are firing together
hundreds of millions of distressed CRE exposure
credit distress AND ground-level distress, with real dollars behind the credit side
Written from the figures above · CBSA 26420 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 27 Aug 2026
· Ask your own question →
Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Jul 2026
5.1%
+0.3pp yr
Last 24 months
4.0%5.2%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 2,818,612 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
This metro's CMBS runs 8.4% distressed where its own property mix predicts 6.4% — $155M more than this book would carry at the rate each property type runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted and excluding this metro. The gap is measured; the cause is not. 1 of 7 property types here run a higher distress rate than the national average for that type (the tick on each bar).
Elimination — does the gap survive a control?
Each row re-prices this metro's book on a finer cell — its own property types, then those types split by loan size, then by vintage — always at the rate that cell runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted. A gap that shrinks toward zero is explained by the control; one that stays has ruled it out. What is measured is what survives, not a cause.
property mix alone
+2.0pp
… and loan size held fixed
+1.9pp
the gap is still there with loan size held fixed too
… and vintage held fixed
+3.3pp
the gap is still there with vintage held fixed too
The largest single contributor is Multifamily: 106 loans, $2.3B, running 18.4% where the same type runs 6.9% elsewhere — worth 3.5pp of this metro's own rate.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$1.2B — 16% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is RISING — 8.2% now (2026-07), +1.0pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $4.6B of the metro's $7.6B; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$1.2B of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 57 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$7.0B more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.17× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.12×.
Regional Bank Room
$7.0B
After Committed Draws
$3.8B / −46%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.17×
Banks In Footprint
57 / 12 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $4.5B of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $3.2B
comes out of the room above, leaving $3.8B,
with 26 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $1.3B of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 06-26 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
16 of 57
are past it on drawn balances alone, and
22 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 57 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frost Bank TX | 19.0% | 123% total 208%
|
🔒 | 0.74% |
| Prosperity Bank TX | 20.4% | 171% total 228%
|
🔒 | 0.18% |
| Texas Capital Bank TX | 9.2% | 105% total 130%
|
🔒 | 0.77% |
| Cornerstone Capital Bank, Ssb TX | 76.4% | 147% total 176%
|
🔒 | 0.15% |
| Third Coast Bank TX | 83.1% | 236% total 309%
|
🔒 | 0.43% |
| Stellar Bank TX | 65.1% | 246% total 396%
|
🔒 | 0.59% |
| First Financial Bank TX | 8.1% | 107% total 167%
|
🔒 | 1.05% |
| International Bank Of Commerce TX | 13.0% | 215% total 236%
|
🔒 | 0.90% |
| Hancock Whitney Bank MS | 2.8% | 146% total 229%
|
🔒 | 0.26% |
| Origin Bank LA | 17.1% | 227% total 312%
|
🔒 | 0.83% |
| First Liberty Bank TX | 99.0% | 171% total 285%
|
🔒 | 0.20% |
| Central Bank TX | 100.0% | 221% total 306%
|
🔒 | 1.22% |
| Texas First Bank TX | 91.1% | 247% total 385%
|
🔒 | 0.09% |
| Plains State Bank TX | 74.1% | 207% total 351%
|
🔒 | 5.27% |
| American First National Bank TX | 47.9% | 258% total 487%
|
🔒 | 0.40% |
| Texas Gulf Bank, National Association TX | 100.0% | 222% total 344%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First National Bank Texas TX | 15.3% | 206% total 240%
|
🔒 | 0.07% |
| Austin County State Bank TX | 87.1% | 152% total 263%
|
🔒 | 0.07% |
| Austin Bank, Texas National Association TX | 7.2% | 135% total 227%
|
🔒 | 0.39% |
| Trustmark Bank MS | 3.8% | 237% total 298%
|
🔒 | 0.17% |
| B1bank LA | 8.1% | 241% total 352%
|
🔒 | 0.84% |
| The Moody National Bank TX | 92.4% | 278% total 364%
|
🔒 | 1.18% |
| Home Bank, National Association LA | 10.6% | 208% total 377%
|
🔒 | 0.96% |
| Plainscapital Bank TX | 5.9% | 255% total 369%
|
🔒 | 0.54% |
| Southtrust Bank, N.a. TX | 28.8% | 145% total 239%
|
🔒 | 0.16% |
| Capital Bank TX | 100.0% | 267% total 550%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Investar Bank, National Association LA | 6.1% | 204% total 317%
|
🔒 | 0.84% |
| Susser Bank TX | 14.0% | 243% total 309%
|
🔒 | 0.44% |
| Hometown Bank, National Association TX | 100.0% | 281% total 428%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Verabank, National Association TX | 2.9% | 166% total 253%
|
🔒 | 0.96% |
| Peoples State Bank TX | 83.4% | 201% total 245%
|
🔒 | 2.46% |
| The First State Bank TX | 13.6% | 173% total 265%
|
🔒 | 5.25% |
| Southstar Bank, S.s.b. TX | 5.8% | 155% total 214%
|
🔒 | 1.19% |
| Citizens State Bank TX | 47.1% | 268% total 326%
|
🔒 | 4.98% |
| City Bank TX | 1.3% | 239% total 324%
|
🔒 | 0.16% |
| Southside Bank TX | 4.2% | 289% total 324%
|
🔒 | 0.09% |
| Benchmark Bank TX | 4.5% | 254% total 308%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Valuebank Texas TX | 6.5% | 231% total 342%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Yoakum Bank TX | 3.7% | 193% total 321%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bom Bank LA | 0.9% | 222% total 378%
|
🔒 | 0.93% |
| Promiseone Bank GA | 4.4% | 284% total 364%
|
🔒 | 1.01% |
| Texas Regional Bank TX | 3.0% | 295% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.02% |
| Grand Bank OK | 4.7% | 289% total 418%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Newfirst National Bank TX | 47.9% | 300% total 382%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| First Community Bank TX | 0.1% | 265% total 305%
|
🔒 | 0.62% |
| Lone Star Bank TX | 89.7% | 310% total 509%
|
🔒 | 0.40% |
| Wallis Bank TX | 74.8% | 419% total 676%
|
🔒 | 1.67% |
| Golden Bank, National Association TX | 53.5% | 327% total 505%
|
🔒 | 2.27% |
| Southwestern National Bank TX | 52.5% | 321% total 540%
|
🔒 | 0.34% |
| Global One Bank TX | 42.1% | 302% total 369%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| One World Bank TX | 22.8% | 380% total 566%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First State Bank Of Texas TX | 13.3% | 309% total 493%
|
🔒 | 3.81% |
| State Bank Of Texas TX | 10.5% | 484% total 484%
|
🔒 | 2.18% |
| Vantage Bank Texas TX | 6.6% | 314% total 424%
|
🔒 | 1.04% |
| Citizens Bank TX | 6.4% | 485% total 660%
|
🔒 | 0.03% |
| Preferred Bank CA | 0.6% | 357% total 380%
|
🔒 | 2.33% |
| Bank Of The Orient CA | 0.4% | 378% total 580%
|
🔒 | 2.35% |
Not counted — 43 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · Bank Of America, National Association NC · Pnc Bank, National Association DE · Wells Fargo Bank South Central, National Association TX · Capital One, National Association VA · Truist Bank NC · Regions Bank AL · The Northern Trust Company IL · Monet Bank TX · First State Bank TX · Unity National Bank Of Houston TX · Anahuac National Bank TX · First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company NC · Texas Advantage Community Bank, National Association TX · Commerce Bank MO · First State Bank Of Livingston TX · U.s. Bank National Association OH · Fifth Third Bank, National Association OH · Bny Mellon, National Association PA · The Bank Of New York Mellon Trust Company, National Association CA · Cibc National Trust Company GA
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Zions Bancorporation, N.a. UT · Bokf, National Association OK · Woodforest National Bank TX · East West Bank CA · First Horizon Bank TN · Midfirst Bank OK · Sunflower Bank, National Association TX · Southstate Bank, National Association FL · Bank Ozk AR · Metro City Bank GA · Cathay Bank CA · Bank Of Hope CA · Simmons Bank AR · Hanmi Bank CA
booked here — books nearly all deposits to one branch — a charter address, not a footprint
Citizens State Bank TX · Gulf Capital Bank TX · Agility Bank, National Association TX · First National Bank Of Lake Jackson TX · Integrity Bank Ssb TX · The Mint National Bank TX · Texas Traditions Bank TX
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2025) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
313 banks holding $268.2B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plains State Bank | $490M | 207% total 351%
|
5.27% | 🔒 |
| Golden Bank, National Association | $1.7B | 327% total 505%
|
2.27% | 🔒 |
| The Mint National Bank | $265M | 267% total 373%
|
2.08% | 🔒 |
| Wallis Bank | $924M | 419% total 676%
|
1.67% | 🔒 |
| First State Bank | $148M | 72% total 302%
|
1.04% | 🔒 |
| Unity National Bank Of Houston | $64M | 71% total 214%
|
0.83% | 🔒 |
| Third Coast Bank | $2.5B | 236% total 309%
|
0.43% | 🔒 |
| American First National Bank | $2.1B | 258% total 487%
|
0.40% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX reads in the slack band on capacity: the CMBS wall of $1.18bn across 70 maturing loans is 0.31 of the $3.78bn in room that 57 regional and community banks still have after committed draws, so lenders appear able to absorb the maturing debt without breaching the SR 06-26 concentration line. The reading of 108 of 270, counting from the most strained, places it slightly above the median ratio of 0.20 in strain, though the "wall" here is CMBS-only and thus an upper bound on what local banks would need to refinance. Note that 21 banks are excluded from the room calculation because their deposits do not indicate where they lend, but since explained_by_exclusion is false, the slack capacity is likely genuine rather than an artifact of invisible national lenders.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $1.18bn
- … across this many loans
- 70
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $6.98bn
- Committed construction draws
- $4.53bn
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $3.78bn
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.31
- Rank, most strained
- 108
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 270
- … before committed draws
- 0.17
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 57
- … excluded from the calculation
- 21
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 8.6%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $7.53bn
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.20 across the ranked metros.
0.31 is ABOVE the median of 0.20, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro
108 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
{'room_is_a_proxy': 'Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.', 'ratio_is_not_size': 'The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros. Read maturing_bal_mm beside the ratio — the map sizes bubbles by the wall, not the strain, for exactly this reason.', 'wall_is_cmbs_only': "The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.", 'exclusion_artifact': 'A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here. Check banks_qualifying against banks_excluded_here, and explained_by_exclusion.'}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 26420 · capacity_metro · last changed 06 Sep 2026
· Ask your own question →
Apartment-REIT Operating Read — same-store disclosures for this metro · as of 2026-07-30Set against the loan book →
Same-Store NOI
+1.4%
Same-Store Revenue
+0.7%
Occupancy
95.3%
Rent Growth
0.0%
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | 0.0% | +0.5% | 95.1% | -0.5% | 2026-07-30 |
| MAA | +2.9% | +0.9% | 95.6% | +0.6% | 2026-07-29 |
Same-store operating results disclosed by public apartment REITs (AVB · EQR · ESS · MAA · CPT · UDR) for this market in their quarterly supplements. Directional market context — an operating trend, not a Verstavo score.
On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
62 local distress events in the past year (3,577 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Houston
2026-08-31
CLOSURE
Houston
2026-08-31
CLOSURE
Houston
2026-08-06
CLOSURE
Houston
2026-07-31
CLOSURE
Houston
2026-07-30
CLOSURE
Houston
2026-07-27
CLOSURE
Houston
2026-07-27
CLOSURE
Houston
2026-07-23
CLOSURE
Missouri City
2026-07-23
CLOSURE
Houston
2026-07-21
CLOSURE
Texas
2026-07-13
CLOSURE
Houston
2026-07-09
LAYOFF
174 jobs · Houston
2026-07-09
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-07-01
LAYOFF
174 jobs · Houston
What has actually happened on the ground in Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX recently?
Over the past 365 days, Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX has seen 29 WARN notices affecting 3,577 jobs, alongside 31 store closures and 4 CRE-likely bankruptcy filings (state proxy; not a metro-native count).
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 31
- WARN layoff notices
- 29
- Jobs on those notices
- 3,577
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 4
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 26420 · geo_events · last changed 06 Sep 2026
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What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
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CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
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