Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · PA
The read
$492M of CMBS across 28 loans. Nothing in this book is distressed today; Retail is the largest exposure at $313M. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2029 ($157M, 32% of the book). Distress is flat in the filed record — 0.0% as of 2026-07. 9 on-the-ground distress events in the past year.
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
A Clean Book in Harrisburg, With the Bill Deferred to 2029
Harrisburg-Carlisle carries $492M of CMBS across 28 loans, and as of July 2026 not a dollar of it is in special servicing or 60-plus days delinquent — a distress rate of 0.0%, flat in the filed record. Retail is the dominant exposure at $313M, and it too shows no filed distress against a national retail rate of 2.7%. Median DSCR across the book sits at 1.62, and the four banks tracked here register no distress and no early-warning flags. On paper, this is one of the cleaner small-metro books on the desk.
The test is a matter of timing rather than condition. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2029, when $157M — 32% of the book — comes due, well ahead of the lighter stacks scheduled across 2028, 2031 and 2032. None of those years carries any filed distress today, but the concentration in a single year is the structural feature that underwriters should keep in view.
The one crack between the servicer record and the street is the on-the-ground read: nine store closures over the past year, against no layoff notices and a labor market that has firmed, with unemployment at 3.5% in July 2026, down a full point year over year. The closures have not translated into filed distress on the retail book, but with $313M concentrated in the sector, they are the signal worth watching.
CMBS Distressed UPB
under $1M / 0.0%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$29M
Local Banks (stressed)
0 / 4
Bank Early-Warning
0 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
9
Layoff Notices (1y)
0 / 0 jobs
CMBS Loans / UPB
28 / $492M
Unemployment · Jul 2026
3.5%
-1.0pp yr
How much CRE distress is there in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA right now?
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA shows mixed CRE stress signals. Store closures are elevated at 8 closures, ranking 49th of 392 metros by count and 98th by rate at 2.84 closures per 100,000 jobs. However, layoff notices (WARN) are quiet at 0 notices, ranking 313th of 386, and bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line reads 3.16% of $6,953.6mm allocated CRE as noncurrent. The securitized loans in special servicing reading is unavailable—the signal is present but not measurable (the share of special-servicing rows that carry a balance at all is 0%). Of six metric pairs, 0 are both elevated, 1 is both quiet, 2 disagree, and 3 are unadjudicated because one side is blind. The disagreement between elevated closures and quiet WARN suggests failure below the WARN filing floor—small operators invisible to disclosure regimes—while the bank leg has not yet reflected tenant departures.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
8 closures | 2.84 per 100k jobs | 49 of 392 | 98 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
0 notices | 0% | 313 of 386 | 308 of 386 | quiet trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$219.8mm | 3.16% | 111 of 393 | 204 of 393 | quiet
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
1 loan records | — | — | — | cannot be read
not measurable 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
0 both elevated
1 both quiet
2 disagreeing
3 unreadable — a side is blind
1 of four legs elevated
blind: securitized loans in special servicing
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
{'coverage': "114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.", 'a_count_ranks_by_size': 'Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes. Every leg carries both ranks over ONE population; quote the rate beside the count.', 'disagreement_is_not_severity': 'Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro. The six pairs read different populations, and each note is a STRUCTURAL prior about those populations — nothing here measures a lead or a lag between two legs, so never report one as timing.', 'a_blind_leg_is_not_a_quiet_one': "A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason. Never report a blind leg as 'no distress'."}
{'fork': 'a blind leg is not a quiet one', 'note': 'securitized loans in special servicing cannot be read here. Their low numbers are an absence of MEASUREMENT.'}
{'leg': 'closures', 'unit': 'jobs', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 281361, 'measures': 'store closures', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': "all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading"}
{'leg': 'warn', 'unit': 'employed', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 307260, 'measures': 'layoff notices (WARN)', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': 'employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted'}
{'leg': 'bank', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-03-31', 'value': 6953.6, 'measures': 'bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': 'bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits'}
{'leg': 'cmbs', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-07-29', 'value': 483.0, 'measures': 'securitized loans in special servicing', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': "current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio"}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 25420 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
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Which distress signals are elevated in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, and which cannot be read?
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA — Distress Signal Assessment
The elevated distress signal in Harrisburg-Carlisle is closures, with 8 store closures over the past year and 0 WARN notices, while the CRE-credit side remains unreadable. On the banking side, the picture shows elevated risk concentration: bank CRE allocation is 2.6% of assets, with bank CRE at risk at the 90th percentile reaching 45.8%, though distressed lender CRE is only $219.8mm and distressed bank assets are 0 — indicating limited actual bank distress despite high exposure levels. However, the securitized market reading is unavailable: CMBS special servicing shows $0.0mm in UPB and a 0.0% share of metro UPB, but per the phase analysis, the "credit side unreadable" — the tape carries no balance for the 1 special-servicing loan, so the securitized signal is a data gap, not an absence of distress. Overall, the ground is wobbling (closures/layoffs) but little CRE-credit distress sits behind it yet — a real-economy signal, not (yet) a CRE-credit event, with the credit-side impact obscured and unmeasurable.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $0.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 0.0%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $6.95bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 45.8%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $219.8mm
- Assets at those lenders
- $0.00bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 2.6%
- Signals reading elevated
- store closures
- Legs agreeing
- 1
- Phase
- obscured
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 1
- Distressed banks
- 0
- Store closures (past year)
- 8
- WARN notices (past year)
- 0
the ground is deteriorating, and whether CRE credit has been hit here CANNOT BE READ: not one of this metro's 1 special-servicing rows carries a balance — the securitized side is invisible here, which is not the same as quiet
little to no distressed CRE dollars behind the signals; and the securitized side is NOT MEASURED here — all 1 loans in special servicing sit on tape rows carrying no balance, so the $0 is a gap in the tape, not an absence of distress
the ground is wobbling (closures / layoffs) but little CRE-credit distress sits behind it yet — a real-economy signal, not (yet) a CRE-credit event
Written from the figures above · CBSA 25420 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 27 Aug 2026
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Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Jul 2026
3.5%
-1.0pp yr
Last 24 months
3.2%4.9%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 281,361 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
This metro's CMBS runs 0.0% distressed where its own property mix predicts 3.3% — $16M less than this book would carry at the rate each property type runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted and excluding this metro. The gap is measured; the cause is not. 0 of 1 property types here run a higher distress rate than the national average for that type (the tick on each bar).
Elimination — does the gap survive a control?
Each row re-prices this metro's book on a finer cell — its own property types, then those types split by loan size, then by vintage — always at the rate that cell runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted. A gap that shrinks toward zero is explained by the control; one that stays has ruled it out. What is measured is what survives, not a cause.
property mix alone
-3.3pp
… and loan size held fixed
-2.7pp
the gap is still there with loan size held fixed too
… and vintage held fixed
-3.1pp
the gap is still there with vintage held fixed too
The largest single contributor is Retail: 11 loans, $313M, running 0.0% where the same type runs 2.7% elsewhere — worth 1.7pp of this metro's own rate.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$29M — 6% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is FLAT — 0.0% now (2026-07), +0.0pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $394M of the metro's $492M; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$29M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 13 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$318M more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.09× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.12×.
Regional Bank Room
$318M
After Committed Draws
$222M / −30%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.09×
Banks In Footprint
13 / 3 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $547M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $96M
comes out of the room above, leaving $222M,
with 5 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $452M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 06-26 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
1 of 13
is past it on drawn balances alone, and
2 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 13 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton Bank, National Association PA | 3.8% | 184% total 283%
|
🔒 | 0.79% |
| First Commonwealth Bank PA | 4.7% | 205% total 260%
|
🔒 | 0.71% |
| Pennian Bank PA | 51.3% | 150% total 204%
|
🔒 | 2.74% |
| Bank Of Bird-In-Hand PA | 5.6% | 115% total 226%
|
🔒 | 0.08% |
| Northwest Bank PA | 0.5% | 109% total 145%
|
🔒 | 1.53% |
| Acnb Bank PA | 2.3% | 232% total 333%
|
🔒 | 0.21% |
| The Juniata Valley Bank PA | 14.7% | 282% total 375%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Univest Bank And Trust Co. PA | 0.2% | 264% total 373%
|
🔒 | 0.22% |
| Orrstown Bank PA | 31.7% | 300% total 415%
|
🔒 | 0.43% |
| Mid Penn Bank PA | 40.6% | 328% total 438%
|
🔒 | 0.25% |
| Farmers And Merchants Trust Company Of Chambersburg PA | 25.5% | 367% total 431%
|
🔒 | 1.79% |
| S&t Bank PA | 3.9% | 309% total 339%
|
🔒 | 0.24% |
| Wilmington Savings Fund Society, Fsb DE | 0.0% | 225% total 301%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
Not counted — 11 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Pnc Bank, National Association DE · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · Citizens Bank, National Association RI · The Bank Of Landisburg PA · Truist Bank NC · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Manufacturers And Traders Trust Company NY · First National Bank Of Pennsylvania PA · Santander Bank, N.a. DE · Woodforest National Bank TX
booked here — books nearly all deposits to one branch — a charter address, not a footprint
Atlantic Community Bankers Bank PA
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2025) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
313 banks holding $268.2B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Community Bankers Bank | $519M | 262% total 318%
|
0.61% | 🔒 |
| Orrstown Bank | $2.5B | 300% total 415%
|
0.43% | 🔒 |
| Mid Penn Bank | $3.3B | 328% total 438%
|
0.25% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA shows clear capacity to refinance its maturing CRE. The market has 13 qualifying banks with a room_after_committed of $221.8mm against a maturing_bal of $28.8mm, producing a wall_to_room of 0.13 that sits below the median ratio of 0.20, ranking 173 of 270 most strained metros. The distressed_share is 0.0%, and while national or charter banks (5 excluded here) might not capture this local lending, no exclusion artifact explains the reading—this metro has genuine slack to absorb its thin CMBS wall.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $28.8mm
- … across this many loans
- 4
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $317.6mm
- Committed construction draws
- $547.3mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $221.8mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.13
- Rank, most strained
- 173
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 270
- … before committed draws
- 0.09
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 13
- … excluded from the calculation
- 5
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 0.0%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $482.4mm
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.20 across the ranked metros.
0.13 is BELOW the median of 0.20, so this metro is LESS strained than the typical ranked metro
173 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
{'room_is_a_proxy': 'Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.', 'ratio_is_not_size': 'The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros. Read maturing_bal_mm beside the ratio — the map sizes bubbles by the wall, not the strain, for exactly this reason.', 'wall_is_cmbs_only': "The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.", 'exclusion_artifact': 'A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here. Check banks_qualifying against banks_excluded_here, and explained_by_exclusion.'}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 25420 · capacity_metro · last changed 06 Sep 2026
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On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
9 local distress events in the past year — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-05-31
CLOSURE
Harrisburg
2026-04-30
CLOSURE
Harrisburg
2025-12-31
CLOSURE
Harrisburg
2025-12-31
CLOSURE
Enola
2025-12-31
CLOSURE
Carlisle
2025-12-31
CLOSURE
Lemoyne
2025-09-30
CLOSURE
Mechanicsburg
2025-09-30
CLOSURE
Mechanicsburg
2025-09-15
CLOSURE
Harrisburg
2025-06-30
LAYOFF
559 jobs · Dauphin
2025-05-31
CLOSURE
Harrisburg
2025-04-15
LAYOFF
91 jobs · Dauphin
2024-12-28
LAYOFF
127 jobs · Dauphin
2024-06-19
LAYOFF
87 jobs · Dauphin
2023-10-31
LAYOFF
57 jobs · Dauphin
What has actually happened on the ground in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA recently?
In the Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA metro over the past 365 days, the on-the-ground picture shows 8 store closures, while 0 CRE bankruptcies, 0 WARN notices, and 0 jobs affected have been recorded, per the vetted data. The store-closure count reflects only approved, ZIP-matched closures (not pending or machine-extracted rows), and the jobs figure is a floor since notices without a stated headcount contribute 0 to the total. Bankruptcy filings are a state-proxy count, not metro-native, so true office/retail distress in the metro remains unquantified beyond these figures.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 8
- WARN layoff notices
- 0
- Jobs on those notices
- 0
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 0
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 25420 · geo_events · last changed 27 Aug 2026
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What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read. The Verstavo platform goes loan‑by‑loan — stress
scores, maturity walls, special‑servicing transfers, bank CRE, and your own portfolio benchmarked
against the market.