Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · MI
The read
$651M of CMBS across 31 loans. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2029 ($333M, 51% of the book). Distress is easing in the filed record — 13.2% as of 2026-07. 19 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (491 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
Grand Rapids' filed distress is receding, but 2029 holds the weight
Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood carries a modest CMBS book by national standards — $651M spread across 31 loans — and the securitized record here is moving the right way. The filed distress rate stood at 13.2% as of July 2026, and the direction is falling. A median DSCR of 1.61 across the book underscores that the loans still current are, by and large, covering their debt service comfortably.
The concentration risk is a matter of timing rather than condition. More than half the book comes due in a single year: $333M, or 51%, matures in 2029, with the remainder scattered across 2030, 2031 and 2034. None of those maturity buckets carries filed distress today. With nothing meaningful maturing inside the next 24 months, the pressure point sits several years out.
The on-the-ground record tells a quieter story than the securitized rate might suggest. The metro logged 19 distress events over the past year — 11 store closures and 8 layoff notices — accounting for 491 jobs. Against a local unemployment rate of 4.3%, down 0.7 points year over year, and with just one of ten banks flagged as distressed and two more under early warning, the broader credit picture in Grand Rapids reads as contained rather than deteriorating.
CMBS Distressed UPB
$86M / 13.2%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$34M
Local Banks (stressed)
1 / 10
Bank Early-Warning
2 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
11
Layoff Notices (1y)
8 / 491 jobs
0.09% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
31 / $651M
Unemployment · Jul 2026
4.3%
-0.7pp yr
How much CRE distress is there in Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI right now?
All four distress signals are elevated in Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI right now — 4 of 4 — and all 6 of the paired readings agree, with 6 pairs both elevated and 0 both quiet or disagreeing. Store closures are running 11 closures at a rate of 2.02 per 100k jobs (ranked 40th of 392 by count, 166th by rate); WARN notices are 8 at a rate of 0.09% of employment (ranked 67th and 174th); bank CRE over the noncurrent line is 408.2 $mm at a rate of 4.45% (ranked 74th and 158th), though only 26.2% of those dollars sit at banks lending in one metro and the rest is split by branch deposits; and securitized loans in special servicing measure at 5 rows at a rate of 13.19% (ranked 34th and 39th), a floor because only 40.0% of the special-servicing rows carry a balance. There is no disagreement among the legs and no unadjudicated pairs, so the picture is one consistent stress story across all four feeds. The bank reading is allocated, not observed at the property, which should be noted as a caveat, but it is not a blind figure — the measurement state is "allocated" and a denominator is available. No other caveats apply; all legs report measurement states of either "allocated," "measured," or "floor," none are blind.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
11 closures | 2.02 per 100k jobs | 40 of 392 | 166 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
8 notices | 0.09% | 67 of 386 | 174 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$408.2mm | 4.45% | 74 of 393 | 158 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
5 loan records | 13.19% | 34 of 335 | 39 of 335 | elevated
floor 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
6 both elevated
0 both quiet
0 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
4 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
{'coverage': "114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.", 'a_count_ranks_by_size': 'Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes. Every leg carries both ranks over ONE population; quote the rate beside the count.', 'disagreement_is_not_severity': 'Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro. The six pairs read different populations, and each note is a STRUCTURAL prior about those populations — nothing here measures a lead or a lag between two legs, so never report one as timing.', 'a_blind_leg_is_not_a_quiet_one': "A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason. Never report a blind leg as 'no distress'."}
{'leg': 'closures', 'unit': 'jobs', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 544364, 'measures': 'store closures', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': "all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading"}
{'leg': 'warn', 'unit': 'employed', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 555782, 'measures': 'layoff notices (WARN)', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': 'employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted'}
{'leg': 'bank', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-03-31', 'value': 9178.8, 'measures': 'bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': 'bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits'}
{'leg': 'cmbs', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-07-29', 'value': 652.0, 'measures': 'securitized loans in special servicing', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': "current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio"}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 24340 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
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Which distress signals are elevated in Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI, and which cannot be read?
In Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI, the distress signals that are elevated are bank distressed CRE (26.2% of bank CRE allocated, with 13.5% of bank CRE at risk in the 90th percentile), CMBS special servicing ($86.0mm in special servicing, or 13.2% of metro UPB), and closures/layoffs. The credit side, however, is unreadable: the securitized dollar figure is measured over 40.0% of this metro's 5 special-servicing rows — the rest carry no balance, so the dollar figure is a FLOOR, and whether CRE credit has been hit here cannot be read. The reading for the distressed lender CRE ($408.2mm) and distressed bank assets (7.40) is available, but the securitized side is invisible, not quiet.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $86.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 13.2%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $9.18bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 13.5%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $408.2mm
- Assets at those lenders
- $7.40bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 26.2%
- Signals reading elevated
- bank CRE over the noncurrent line, CMBS in special servicing, store closures, WARN layoff notices
- Legs agreeing
- 4
- Phase
- obscured
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 5
- Distressed banks
- 1
- Store closures (past year)
- 11
- WARN notices (past year)
- 8
the ground is deteriorating, and whether CRE credit has been hit here CANNOT BE READ: the securitized dollars are measured over 40.0% of its 5 special-servicing rows — the securitized side is invisible here, which is not the same as quiet
tens of millions of distressed CRE exposure; measured over 40.0% of this metro's 5 special-servicing rows — the rest carry no balance, so the dollar figure is a FLOOR
the ground is wobbling (closures / layoffs) but little CRE-credit distress sits behind it yet — a real-economy signal, not (yet) a CRE-credit event
Written from the figures above · CBSA 24340 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 28 Aug 2026
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Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Jul 2026
4.3%
-0.7pp yr
Last 24 months
3.7%5.0%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 544,364 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
This metro's CMBS runs 13.2% distressed where its own property mix predicts 5.2% — $52M more than this book would carry at the rate each property type runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted and excluding this metro. The gap is measured; the cause is not.
No CMBS sector data for this metro.
Elimination — does the gap survive a control?
Each row re-prices this metro's book on a finer cell — its own property types, then those types split by loan size, then by vintage — always at the rate that cell runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted. A gap that shrinks toward zero is explained by the control; one that stays has ruled it out. What is measured is what survives, not a cause.
property mix alone
+8.0pp
… and loan size held fixed
+8.1pp
the gap is still there with loan size held fixed too
… and vintage held fixed
+6.1pp
the gap is still there with vintage held fixed too
The largest single contributor is Hospitality: 5 loans, $78M, running 62.9% where the same type runs 5.9% elsewhere — worth 6.8pp of this metro's own rate.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$34M — 5% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is FALLING — 13.2% now (2026-07), -6.0pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $566M of the metro's $651M; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$34M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 15 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$1.2B more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.03× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.12×.
Regional Bank Room
$1.2B
After Committed Draws
$764M / −37%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.03×
Banks In Footprint
15 / 5 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $608M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $453M
comes out of the room above, leaving $764M,
with 6 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $156M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 06-26 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
1 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 15 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macatawa Bank, National Association MI | 82.4% | 123% total 178%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Mercantile Bank MI | 51.9% | 222% total 311%
|
🔒 | 0.01% |
| Independent Bank MI | 28.4% | 174% total 287%
|
🔒 | 1.65% |
| Choiceone Bank MI | 24.0% | 257% total 393%
|
🔒 | 0.80% |
| Highpoint Community Bank MI | 82.7% | 246% total 369%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Isabella Bank MI | 10.9% | 201% total 290%
|
🔒 | 0.22% |
| Commercial Bank MI | 16.7% | 150% total 232%
|
🔒 | 0.26% |
| First Merchants Bank IN | 0.4% | 183% total 243%
|
🔒 | 0.59% |
| Horizon Bank IN | 1.6% | 235% total 331%
|
🔒 | 0.26% |
| First Community Bank MI | 13.5% | 268% total 520%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Grand River Bank MI | 100.0% | 324% total 527%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| West Michigan Community Bank MI | 77.6% | 303% total 571%
|
🔒 | 0.95% |
| Union Bank MI | 58.4% | 309% total 497%
|
🔒 | 1.74% |
| United Bank Of Michigan MI | 54.1% | 463% total 574%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First National Bank Of Michigan MI | 16.3% | 480% total 622%
|
🔒 | 1.00% |
Not counted — 12 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Fifth Third Bank, National Association OH · The Huntington National Bank OH · Northpointe Bank MI · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Pnc Bank, National Association DE · Bank Of America, National Association NC · First National Bank Of America MI · Sidney State Bank MI · The Northern Trust Company IL · Eaton Community Bank MI
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Old National Bank IN · Flagstar Bank, National Association NY
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2025) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
313 banks holding $268.2B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northpointe Bank | $122M | 17% total 17%
|
4.57% | 🔒 |
| Union Bank | $188M | 309% total 497%
|
1.74% | 🔒 |
| Independent Bank | $1.7B | 174% total 287%
|
1.65% | 🔒 |
| West Michigan Community Bank | $634M | 303% total 571%
|
0.95% | 🔒 |
| Choiceone Bank | $1.7B | 257% total 393%
|
0.80% | 🔒 |
| Mercantile Bank | $2.4B | 222% total 311%
|
0.01% | 🔒 |
| Grand River Bank | $299M | 324% total 527%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Macatawa Bank, National Association | $684M | 123% total 178%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI shows slack capacity to refinance its maturing CRE, with a wall-to-room ratio of 0.05 — below the 0.20 median, placing it 230 of 270 metros from the most strained. Of 15 qualifying banks there is $764.2mm in room after committed draws against a $34.4mm maturing balance across 4 loans. Even with 13.2% of the $651.2mm CMBS UPB distressed, the wall is only 0.05 of available room, offering ample cushion.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $34.4mm
- … across this many loans
- 4
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $1.22bn
- Committed construction draws
- $608.1mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $764.2mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.05
- Rank, most strained
- 230
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 270
- … before committed draws
- 0.03
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 15
- … excluded from the calculation
- 2
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 13.2%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $651.2mm
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.20 across the ranked metros.
0.05 is BELOW the median of 0.20, so this metro is LESS strained than the typical ranked metro
230 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
{'room_is_a_proxy': 'Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.', 'ratio_is_not_size': 'The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros. Read maturing_bal_mm beside the ratio — the map sizes bubbles by the wall, not the strain, for exactly this reason.', 'wall_is_cmbs_only': "The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.", 'exclusion_artifact': 'A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here. Check banks_qualifying against banks_excluded_here, and explained_by_exclusion.'}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 24340 · capacity_metro · last changed 06 Sep 2026
· Ask your own question →
On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
19 local distress events in the past year (491 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-08-19
CLOSURE
Grand Rapids
2026-08-18
CLOSURE
Grand Rapids
2026-08-18
LAYOFF
Grand Rapids
2026-08-05
LAYOFF
Flint
2026-07-14
LAYOFF
200 jobs · Grand Rapids
2026-05-26
CLOSURE
Grand Rapids
2026-04-30
CLOSURE
Grandville
2026-04-28
CLOSURE
Grand Rapids
2026-04-28
CLOSURE
Grand Rapids
2026-04-06
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-04-06
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-03-31
CLOSURE
Grandville
2026-03-31
LAYOFF
58 jobs · Grand Rapids
2026-02-04
CLOSURE
Grand Rapids
2026-01-31
CLOSURE
Kentwood
What has actually happened on the ground in Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI recently?
In the Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI metro over the past 365 days, there have been 3 CRE-related bankruptcy filings (state proxy, not metro-native), 11 store closures (approved, ZIP-matched), and 8 WARN notices affecting 491 jobs (floor value, as notices without headcounts contribute 0). The reading for any additional on-the-ground activity beyond these is unavailable.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 11
- WARN layoff notices
- 8
- Jobs on those notices
- 491
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 3
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 24340 · geo_events · last changed 28 Aug 2026
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What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read. The Verstavo platform goes loan‑by‑loan — stress
scores, maturity walls, special‑servicing transfers, bank CRE, and your own portfolio benchmarked
against the market.