Denver's CMBS book runs to $1.8 billion across 96 loans, and the weight sits in office. At $493 million it is both the largest slice of the metro and the most troubled, with a distress rate of 29.2% against an 11.1% national mark for the sector — nearly three times the country's reading. That is the concentration desks will watch here: the biggest exposure and the worst-performing one are the same book.
The filed record, though, is moving the other way. Distress stands at 17.4% as of July 2026 and has been easing, with a metro median DSCR of 1.73 still giving most of the book room to cover debt service. Retail and self-storage show no distress on the tape, and the hardest maturity wall is still out ahead — $426 million comes due in 2029, the heaviest single year, with the 2030 vintage carrying the higher distress reading at 35.6%.
On the ground, the past year brought 38 distress events touching 2,031 jobs, split between store closures and layoff notices, with metro unemployment at 4.6% in August 2026, up 0.8 point year over year. The signal is a cooling but still office-heavy credit picture: the filed numbers are coming down, but the sector doing the damage is also the one Denver has the most of.
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO is showing broad-based CRE distress right now: all four of the independent feeds read elevated, and all 6 pairs of legs agree hot, with 0 pairs quiet and 0 pairs disagreeing. Store closures run at 2.02 per 100,000 jobs (28 closures, 17th of 392 metros by count but 166th by rate), while WARN layoff notices run at 0.14% of employment (22 notices, 30th of 386 by count, 146th by rate). Bank CRE over the noncurrent line sits at 9.75% of the book ($2,335.3mm allocated by branch deposits, 25th of 393 by count, 68th by rate), and securitized loans in special servicing run at 18.94% of the trust slice read here (12 rows, 14th of 335 by count, 23rd by rate) — note the bank leg's allocation caveat that only 7.3% of its dollars sit at single-metro lenders, so the rest is split by branch deposits the call report can't confirm.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
28 closures | 2.02 per 100k jobs | 17 of 392 | 166 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
22 notices | 0.14% | 30 of 386 | 146 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$2.34bn | 9.75% | 25 of 393 | 68 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
12 loan records | 18.94% | 14 of 335 | 23 of 335 | elevated 2026-07-29
|
In Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO, the elevated distress signals are bank-distressed CRE, CMBS special servicing, store closures, and WARN notices. Specifically, bank-distressed CRE is at “$2.34bn” (with a 90th-percentile at-risk share of “31.6%”), CMBS special-servicing UPB is “$346.0mm” (18.9% of metro UPB), and there are 12 CMBS loans in special servicing, 28 store closures, and 22 WARN notices over the past year. However, the bank-level distress signal cannot be read: the reading on distressed bank assets is “0”, and the count of distressed banks is likewise unavailable beyond that zero figure, with the bank CRE allocation share at “7.3%” but no explicit elevated bank-failure metric provided.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First National Bank SD | 15.3% | 148% total 188%
|
🔒 | 0.01% |
| Anb Bank CO | 26.6% | 166% total 242%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Alpine Bank CO | 7.9% | 190% total 259%
|
🔒 | 0.20% |
| Academy Bank, National Association MO | 16.6% | 228% total 294%
|
🔒 | 1.11% |
| Inbank NM | 32.5% | 224% total 355%
|
🔒 | 0.92% |
| Redstone Bank CO | 100.0% | 232% total 340%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Evergreen National Bank CO | 100.0% | 208% total 322%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bank Of Colorado CO | 12.1% | 292% total 356%
|
🔒 | 0.07% |
| 5star Bank CO | 18.9% | 228% total 299%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Farmers State Bank Of Calhan CO | 15.5% | 184% total 204%
|
🔒 | 0.71% |
| High Plains Bank CO | 9.3% | 197% total 377%
|
🔒 | 0.37% |
| Banc Of California CA | 0.8% | 291% total 334%
|
🔒 | 4.24% |
| Newbank NY | 0.3% | 164% total 395%
|
🔒 | 3.26% |
| Corefirst Bank & Trust KS | 1.3% | 274% total 401%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Western Trust Bank CO | 54.4% | 312% total 384%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Firstier Bank NE | 14.7% | 323% total 401%
|
🔒 | 3.81% |
| Pb&t Bank CO | 10.1% | 317% total 480%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| Kirkpatrick Bank OK | 4.4% | 384% total 449%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| United Fidelity Bank, Fsb IN | 2.3% | 430% total 434%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| First Fidelity Bank OK | 1.4% | 308% total 462%
|
🔒 | 0.49% |
| United Business Bank CA | 0.3% | 402% total 555%
|
🔒 | 0.48% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solera National Bank | $342M | 218% total 231%
|
1.63% | 🔒 |
| Native American Bank, National Association | $50M | 34% total 92%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Evergreen National Bank | $58M | 208% total 322%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Colorado Federal Savings Bank | $483M | 176% total 176%
|
1.26% | 🔒 |
| North Valley Bank | $143M | 248% total 406%
|
0.87% | 🔒 |
| First American State Bank | $110M | 286% total 377%
|
0.43% | 🔒 |
| Nbh Bank | $4.1B | 215% total 306%
|
0.22% | 🔒 |
| Fortis Bank | $589M | 267% total 447%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
Denver-Aurora-Centennial's $591.5mm of maturing CMBS debt across 37 loans compares against $283.8mm of regional and community bank room remaining after committed draws, a wall-to-room ratio of 2.08 that ranks 37 of 275 metros most strained—yet the strain reading is best treated as an exclusion artifact rather than evidence of scarce credit, since 24 banks are excluded here against 21 qualifying, leaving the metro's lending capacity largely invisible to this read; the maturing balance is also only the CMBS the platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVB | — | -3.5% | 95.6% | -5.7% | 2026-07-30 |
| CPT | -7.5% | -4.1% | 96.2% | -1.7% | 2026-07-30 |
| EQR | -9.8% | -5.9% | 96.8% | -7.7% | 2026-04-28 |
| MAA | -7.1% | -4.0% | 95.8% | -2.8% | 2026-07-29 |
Over the trailing 365 days, the Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO metro has seen 22 store closures and 16 WARN notices, with 2,031 jobs affected — a figure that is a floor, since notices stating no headcount contribute nothing — alongside 0 CRE-likely bankruptcies, though that bankruptcy reading is a STATE PROXY and not a metro-native count.