Birmingham runs an $816 million CMBS book across 33 loans, and the story on the page is a record that has been rising: the filed distress rate stood at 12.9% as of July 2026. That is a status the servicer has declared — loans in special servicing or 60-plus days delinquent — not a projection, and the direction has been up. The metro still carries a healthy median debt-service coverage of 1.98, so the strain is concentrated rather than broad.
Retail is the largest slice at $362 million, and it is clean: 0.0% distressed against a national retail rate of 2.7%. The pressure sits elsewhere in the stack. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2027, with $261 million — 32% of the book — coming due. Further out, the smaller 2029 and 2031 vintages already carry filed distress of 21.1% and 92.1%, respectively, marking where the trouble is currently declared.
On the ground, the past year brought 31 distress events — 10 store closures and 21 layoff notices totaling 1,661 jobs. Unemployment was 3.5% in July 2026, up 0.7 points year over year. Among the 12 banks tracked here, two are flagged distressed and two more sit on early warning.
Here is the Birmingham, AL CRE distress read:
Birmingham, AL is showing broad-based distress: 3 of 4 signals are elevated, and 3 of 6 pairwise comparisons agree on stress while another 3 point to disagreement between mechanisms. Store closures are elevated at 13 closures (3.0 per 100k jobs), and layoff notices (WARN) are elevated at 23 notices (0.3% of employment). Bank CRE over the noncurrent line is elevated at $1,120.3mm, an 8.37% rate. The securitized tape reads quiet at 4 loans in special servicing, a 13.46% rate, but the disagreement is structural: retail is failing on buildings this tape does not hold, the lenders here are stressed on a book the tape cannot see, and employers are cutting while the securitized book has not moved. No legs are blind, so all six pairs are adjudicated, with three reading elevated on both sides and none reading quiet on both.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
13 closures | 3 per 100k jobs | 34 of 392 | 86 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
23 notices | 0.3% | 28 of 386 | 72 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$1.12bn | 8.37% | 40 of 393 | 88 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
4 loan records | 13.46% | 42 of 335 | 38 of 335 | quiet 2026-07-29
|
In Birmingham, AL, the elevated distress signals are bank-distressed CRE (distressed lender CRE of $1.12bn), retail closures (13 store closures over 1 year), and WARN layoffs (23 notices in 1 year). The CRE-credit stress reading is still early: bank CRE at risk at the 90th percentile is 51.3% of $13.38bn in bank CRE, while the CMBS special-servicing share of metro UPB is 13.5% ($119.0mm in special servicing). The reading on loan-count concentration is unavailable—only the UPB share is provided, not the number of CMBS loans in special servicing relative to the metro total.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakworth Capital Bank AL | 77.3% | 190% total 305%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Metro Bank AL | 77.0% | 187% total 222%
|
🔒 | 1.66% |
| Bryant Bank AL | 30.7% | 200% total 269%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| River Bank & Trust AL | 14.2% | 159% total 276%
|
🔒 | 0.31% |
| Central State Bank AL | 94.7% | 233% total 373%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First National Banker's Bank LA | 25.8% | 189% total 233%
|
🔒 | 1.00% |
| Evabank AL | 15.5% | 116% total 213%
|
🔒 | 0.35% |
| Peoples Bank Of Alabama AL | 23.3% | 215% total 299%
|
🔒 | 0.56% |
| Firstbank TN | 4.5% | 269% total 386%
|
🔒 | 0.97% |
| Citizens Trust Bank GA | 11.4% | 110% total 177%
|
🔒 | 1.62% |
| First Us Bank AL | 41.1% | 249% total 296%
|
🔒 | 0.09% |
| Trustmark Bank MS | 1.7% | 237% total 298%
|
🔒 | 0.17% |
| Community Bank Of Mississippi MS | 3.1% | 202% total 310%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| Union State Bank AL | 71.2% | 227% total 312%
|
🔒 | 0.74% |
| West Alabama Bank & Trust AL | 4.3% | 151% total 248%
|
🔒 | 0.11% |
| Cb&s Bank, Inc. AL | 2.3% | 204% total 267%
|
🔒 | 0.94% |
| Marion Community Bank AL | 24.4% | 228% total 356%
|
🔒 | 2.39% |
| Robertson Banking Company AL | 12.2% | 255% total 330%
|
🔒 | 0.01% |
| Bankfirst Financial Services MS | 1.1% | 219% total 317%
|
🔒 | 0.32% |
| Noblebank & Trust AL | 8.5% | 230% total 329%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Peoples Independent Bank AL | 4.6% | 182% total 230%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Bank Of Alabama AL | 2.7% | 244% total 327%
|
🔒 | 4.32% |
| Smartbank TN | 2.2% | 290% total 461%
|
🔒 | 0.10% |
| Millennial Bank AL | 100.0% | 299% total 516%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Southpoint Bank AL | 66.5% | 350% total 534%
|
🔒 | 3.10% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hometown Bank Of Alabama | $59M | 53% total 75%
|
4.75% | 🔒 |
| Southpoint Bank | $577M | 350% total 534%
|
3.10% | 🔒 |
| First Financial Bank | $69M | 88% total 250%
|
2.61% | 🔒 |
| Metro Bank | $389M | 187% total 222%
|
1.66% | 🔒 |
| Servisfirst Bank | $9.4B | 307% total 429%
|
1.45% | 🔒 |
| Regions Bank | $16.3B | 65% total 97%
|
1.14% | 🔒 |
| Union State Bank | $66M | 227% total 312%
|
0.74% | 🔒 |
| First Us Bank | $340M | 249% total 296%
|
0.09% | 🔒 |
Birmingham, AL’s refinancing capacity sits in the “slack” band, though the reading carries caveats. The metro has 25 banks qualifying for the analysis (with 9 excluded), leaving $506.8mm in room after committed draws of $415.4mm against a $323.7mm CMBS wall. The wall-to-room ratio is 0.64, ranking Birmingham 67 of 270 most strained metros; the ratio is above the median of 0.20, but the room is ample even before accounting for committed draws, which would lift capacity to a 0.39 ratio. The distressed share stands at 14.6%, but the wall is CMBS-only, and room is a proxy based on deposit footprints—so the banks likely have capacity to refinance the maturing balance here, though the strained rank partly reflects exclusion artifacts rather than credit events.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAA | -0.1% | +0.8% | 95.2% | +1.9% | 2026-07-29 |
In the past 365 days, Birmingham, AL has recorded 13 store closures and 21 WARN notices, affecting 1661 jobs. Notably, the reading for CRE bankruptcies is unavailable, as the figure is a state proxy rather than a metro-native count. The jobs figure is a floor, since notices without a stated headcount are counted but contribute zero jobs.