Atlanta's CMBS book runs to $4.6 billion across 266 loans, and the largest slice of it is the one giving underwriters the least trouble. Retail, at $1.2 billion, is the biggest sector on the page, yet it carries a distress rate of just 0.3% — a fraction of the 2.7% national retail mark. The strain is elsewhere. Office, a smaller $0.6 billion book, is running distressed at 14.6%, above the 11.3% national office rate. That is the familiar shape of this cycle: the concentration of dollars and the concentration of trouble are not in the same place.
Metro-wide distress stands at 3.6% as of July 2026, and the filed record has been rising. That level sits below several sectors' national benchmarks — hospitality at 3.7% against 6.1%, multifamily at 5.0% against 7.6% — and the median DSCR of 1.74 gives the book room. The heaviest refinancing test lands in 2029, when $1.3 billion, 27% of the book, comes due; the 2028 stack of $1.0 billion is already carrying a 4.8% distress rate. Only $0.8 billion matures inside the next 24 months.
On the ground, the past year brought 101 distress events — 39 store closures and 62 layoff notices touching 9,964 jobs — against a metro unemployment rate of 3.2%, down 0.2 point year over year. Among the 21 banks with local exposure, one is distressed and five sit on early-warning footing. The read here is a book that is broadly holding, with the pressure narrowly drawn: Office, and the 2028–2029 maturity window.
For Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, commercial real estate distress is elevated across all four independent feeds, with all 6 of 6 possible pairings agreeing on heightened stress. Store closures number 44 over the trailing year, ranking 9th of 392 metros by count but only 197th by rate at 1.74 closures per 100,000 jobs—a reading that is elevated by the metro's size rather than by per-unit stress. Layoff notices (WARN) total 70, ranking 12th of 386 by count and 68th by rate at 0.31% of metro employment. Bank CRE over the noncurrent line sits at $3,477.3 million, ranking 16th of 393 by count and 95th by rate at 7.83%, though this figure is allocated by branch deposits and cannot be fully confirmed. Securitized loans in special servicing number 11 rows, ranking 16th of 335 by count and 76th by rate at 4.2% of the securitized balance read here. The single size-driven caveat applies only to the closures leg; all three other legs show genuine rate-based elevation alongside strong count rankings. No pairs disagree, and none are unadjudicated due to blindness—so the distress signal is broad-based and mutually reinforcing across tenant operations, employer headcount, bank balance sheets, and securitized trust paper.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
44 closures | 1.74 per 100k jobs | 9 of 392 | 197 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
70 notices | 0.31% | 12 of 386 | 68 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$3.48bn | 7.83% | 16 of 393 | 95 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
11 loan records | 4.2% | 16 of 335 | 76 of 335 | elevated 2026-07-29
|
In Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, the elevated distress signals are bank distressed CRE exposure, CMBS special servicing, store closures, and WARN notices. Specifically, bank CRE at the 90th percentile is 27.1%, with bank CRE 7.7% allocated to distressed lender exposure totaling $3.48bn, while CMBS special servicing UPB is $191.0mm (a 4.2% share of metro UPB). Additionally, there are 44 store closures and 70 WARN notices over the past year. The reading for distressed banks (count: 0 and assets $0.00bn) is unavailable as a distress signal since none are present, and the analyst should note that no elevated bank-level default figure is cited here beyond the at-risk percentage.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameris Bank GA | 38.6% | 263% total 319%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| United Bank GA | 66.5% | 124% total 172%
|
🔒 | 0.10% |
| Citizens Trust Bank GA | 85.9% | 110% total 177%
|
🔒 | 1.62% |
| Affinity Bank, National Association GA | 100.0% | 220% total 360%
|
🔒 | 0.46% |
| Community Bank Of Pickens County GA | 100.0% | 211% total 399%
|
🔒 | 2.42% |
| The Citizens Bank Of Georgia GA | 100.0% | 200% total 292%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Coastal States Bank SC | 36.8% | 238% total 331%
|
🔒 | 1.53% |
| Bank Of Madison GA | 100.0% | 207% total 277%
|
🔒 | 0.03% |
| First National Bank Of Griffin GA | 100.0% | 196% total 258%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Southern First Bank SC | 12.8% | 236% total 397%
|
🔒 | 0.23% |
| Vallant Bank GA | 24.3% | 264% total 397%
|
🔒 | 0.71% |
| Shinhan Bank America NY | 31.0% | 257% total 382%
|
🔒 | 0.88% |
| American Commerce Bank, National Association GA | 89.3% | 257% total 369%
|
🔒 | 3.03% |
| Georgia Banking Company GA | 100.0% | 290% total 370%
|
🔒 | 0.04% |
| Hometrust Bank NC | 7.8% | 235% total 324%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| New Millennium Bank NJ | 9.8% | 168% total 294%
|
🔒 | 0.08% |
| First National Community Bank GA | 20.9% | 225% total 384%
|
🔒 | 0.51% |
| Banksouth GA | 15.2% | 247% total 303%
|
🔒 | 0.54% |
| Promiseone Bank GA | 75.9% | 284% total 364%
|
🔒 | 1.01% |
| Capital City Bank FL | 1.0% | 122% total 193%
|
🔒 | 0.40% |
| First Peoples Bank GA | 14.9% | 205% total 321%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Colony Bank GA | 8.1% | 278% total 392%
|
🔒 | 0.49% |
| Oconee State Bank GA | 12.8% | 248% total 482%
|
🔒 | 3.83% |
| First American Bank And Trust Company GA | 23.6% | 293% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Farmers And Merchants Bank GA | 9.5% | 285% total 389%
|
🔒 | 1.54% |
| Fieldpoint Private Bank & Trust CT | 0.7% | 257% total 330%
|
🔒 | 1.66% |
| Hyperion Bank PA | 43.2% | 348% total 363%
|
🔒 | 0.91% |
| American Pride Bank GA | 11.8% | 431% total 502%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Wallis Bank TX | 9.9% | 419% total 676%
|
🔒 | 1.67% |
| Central Bank FL | 8.5% | 398% total 588%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| First Carolina Bank NC | 3.7% | 448% total 515%
|
🔒 | 1.07% |
| Paragon Bank TN | 1.8% | 321% total 423%
|
🔒 | 0.23% |
| Pcb Bank CA | 0.2% | 304% total 471%
|
🔒 | 0.13% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Commerce Bank, National Association | $332M | 257% total 369%
|
3.03% | 🔒 |
| Community Bank Of Pickens County | $366M | 211% total 399%
|
2.42% | 🔒 |
| Touchmark National Bank | $283M | 387% total 510%
|
2.26% | 🔒 |
| Citizens Trust Bank | $197M | 110% total 177%
|
1.62% | 🔒 |
| Promiseone Bank | $332M | 284% total 364%
|
1.01% | 🔒 |
| Metro City Bank | $1.5B | 148% total 288%
|
0.47% | 🔒 |
| Craft Bank | $150M | 218% total 330%
|
0.98% | 🔒 |
| Affinity Bank, National Association | $406M | 220% total 360%
|
0.46% | 🔒 |
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Rossell, GA ranks 52 of 270 metros counting from the MOST strained, putting it well above the median strain reading of 0.20, and its wall-to-room ratio of 1.16 sits noticeably above that benchmark. The CMBS wall maturing within 24 months is $756.6mm across 63 loans, against a regional/community bank lending room of $653.7mm after deducting $1.68bn in committed construction draws — meaning local banks cannot fully absorb the maturing balance without hitting concentration limits. Before accounting for committed draws, room expands to $1.72bn, pushing the wall-to-room ratio down to 0.44, which suggests the strain is driven largely by prior lending commitments. With a distressed share of 4.8% on a total CMBS balance of $4.53bn, the market shows moderate stress, though this reading is an upper bound — it reflects only CMBS maturities, not the metro's full debt load. Notably, 33 banks qualifying for the room calculation versus 22 excluded suggests the strain is not purely an artifact of lending outside the regional banking footprint, and since explained_by_exclusion is false, the capacity gap appears genuine rather than a data quirk.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | -2.6% | +1.3% | 95.5% | +0.7% | 2026-07-30 |
| EQR | -6.2% | -2.0% | 96.2% | -2.6% | 2026-04-28 |
| MAA | +0.6% | 0.0% | 95.2% | 0.0% | 2026-07-29 |
In the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA metro, over the trailing 365-day window, the ground truth shows 0 CRE bankruptcies (a state-proxy count, not metro-native), 62 WARN notices affecting 9,964 jobs (a floor, as notices with no headcount still count but contribute 0), and 43 approved store closures (pending or machine-extracted rows excluded). This reflects a modest pace of retail rationalization and layoff activity, though the bankruptcy reading is unavailable at the metro level due to the state-based filing attribution.