Atlanta carries $4.8 billion of CMBS across 271 loans, and the filed record is turning: distress has risen to 3.6% as of July 2026, up from the 3.1% logged on the book. That is still a measured number for a metro this size, and the median DSCR of 1.7 says most of the paper is covering itself. But the direction is the story — the servicer-declared rate is moving the wrong way, and the on-the-ground ledger backs it up: 108 distress events over the past year, split between 53 store closures and 55 layoff notices totaling 9,119 jobs, against a local unemployment rate of 3.4% that has eased 0.2 point over the year.
The maturity wall is where the pressure concentrates. The heaviest load lands in 2029, $1.3 billion, or 27% of the book, and that vintage already carries a 3.8% distress rate. Another $1.0 billion comes due within 24 months, with $1.0 billion stacked in 2028 and $1.1 billion in 2031 — the latter clean at 0.0% for now. Across the bank channel, the footprint is smaller and calmer: of 20 lenders, one is distressed and five sit on early-warning watch.
By sector, the book leans retail ($1.2 billion) and hospitality ($0.9 billion), with multifamily ($0.8 billion), industrial ($0.7 billion) and office ($0.6 billion) behind. Office is the thinnest slice here, which matters when the national office distress rate stands at 11.1% — Atlanta simply has less of that exposure to absorb. The national marks frame the rest: hospitality runs 6.2% and multifamily 7.9% nationally, against retail at 2.6% and industrial at 2.7%. For desks underwriting this metro, the watch items are clear — the rising filed rate and the 2029 concentration.
For Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, commercial real estate distress is elevated across all four independent feeds, with all 6 of 6 possible pairings agreeing on heightened stress. Store closures number 44 over the trailing year, ranking 9th of 392 metros by count but only 197th by rate at 1.74 closures per 100,000 jobs—a reading that is elevated by the metro's size rather than by per-unit stress. Layoff notices (WARN) total 70, ranking 12th of 386 by count and 68th by rate at 0.31% of metro employment. Bank CRE over the noncurrent line sits at $3,477.3 million, ranking 16th of 393 by count and 95th by rate at 7.83%, though this figure is allocated by branch deposits and cannot be fully confirmed. Securitized loans in special servicing number 11 rows, ranking 16th of 335 by count and 76th by rate at 4.2% of the securitized balance read here. The single size-driven caveat applies only to the closures leg; all three other legs show genuine rate-based elevation alongside strong count rankings. No pairs disagree, and none are unadjudicated due to blindness—so the distress signal is broad-based and mutually reinforcing across tenant operations, employer headcount, bank balance sheets, and securitized trust paper.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
44 closures | 1.74 per 100k jobs | 9 of 392 | 197 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
70 notices | 0.31% | 12 of 386 | 68 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$3.48bn | 7.83% | 16 of 393 | 95 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
11 loan records | 4.2% | 16 of 335 | 76 of 335 | elevated 2026-07-29
|
In Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, the elevated distress signals are bank distressed CRE exposure, CMBS special servicing, store closures, and WARN notices. Specifically, bank CRE at the 90th percentile is 27.1%, with bank CRE 7.7% allocated to distressed lender exposure totaling $3.48bn, while CMBS special servicing UPB is $191.0mm (a 4.2% share of metro UPB). Additionally, there are 44 store closures and 70 WARN notices over the past year. The reading for distressed banks (count: 0 and assets $0.00bn) is unavailable as a distress signal since none are present, and the analyst should note that no elevated bank-level default figure is cited here beyond the at-risk percentage.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameris Bank GA | 40.0% | 263% total 319%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| United Bank GA | 66.6% | 124% total 172%
|
🔒 | 0.10% |
| Citizens Trust Bank GA | 85.8% | 110% total 177%
|
🔒 | 1.62% |
| Affinity Bank, National Association GA | 100.0% | 220% total 360%
|
🔒 | 0.46% |
| Community Bank Of Pickens County GA | 100.0% | 211% total 399%
|
🔒 | 2.42% |
| The Citizens Bank Of Georgia GA | 100.0% | 200% total 292%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Coastal States Bank SC | 38.1% | 238% total 331%
|
🔒 | 1.53% |
| Bank Of Madison GA | 100.0% | 207% total 277%
|
🔒 | 0.03% |
| First National Bank Of Griffin GA | 100.0% | 196% total 258%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Southern First Bank SC | 14.3% | 236% total 397%
|
🔒 | 0.23% |
| Craft Bank GA | 100.0% | 218% total 330%
|
🔒 | 0.98% |
| Firstbank TN | 6.4% | 269% total 386%
|
🔒 | 0.97% |
| Georgia Banking Company GA | 100.0% | 290% total 370%
|
🔒 | 0.04% |
| American Commerce Bank, National Association GA | 87.1% | 257% total 369%
|
🔒 | 3.03% |
| Hometrust Bank NC | 7.9% | 235% total 324%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| Shinhan Bank America NY | 26.2% | 257% total 382%
|
🔒 | 0.88% |
| First Peoples Bank GA | 36.9% | 205% total 321%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| New Millennium Bank NJ | 10.7% | 168% total 294%
|
🔒 | 0.08% |
| Vallant Bank GA | 12.7% | 264% total 397%
|
🔒 | 0.71% |
| First National Community Bank GA | 21.0% | 225% total 384%
|
🔒 | 0.51% |
| Banksouth GA | 14.4% | 247% total 303%
|
🔒 | 0.54% |
| Seacoast National Bank FL | 0.7% | 230% total 325%
|
🔒 | 0.57% |
| Promiseone Bank GA | 76.3% | 284% total 364%
|
🔒 | 1.01% |
| Bankunited, National Association FL | 0.3% | 194% total 243%
|
🔒 | 0.62% |
| Capital City Bank FL | 1.0% | 122% total 193%
|
🔒 | 0.40% |
| Colony Bank GA | 5.9% | 278% total 392%
|
🔒 | 0.49% |
| Oconee State Bank GA | 11.7% | 248% total 482%
|
🔒 | 3.83% |
| First American Bank And Trust Company GA | 23.3% | 293% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Legacy State Bank GA | 100.0% | 294% total 452%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Farmers And Merchants Bank GA | 9.0% | 285% total 389%
|
🔒 | 1.54% |
| Bank Of Dudley GA | 0.9% | 278% total 436%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Hyperion Bank PA | 45.3% | 348% total 363%
|
🔒 | 0.91% |
| First Community Bank SC | 10.3% | 316% total 473%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Wallis Bank TX | 9.2% | 419% total 676%
|
🔒 | 1.67% |
| Central Bank FL | 9.0% | 398% total 588%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| American Pride Bank GA | 6.1% | 431% total 502%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Carolina Bank NC | 3.8% | 448% total 515%
|
🔒 | 1.07% |
| Paragon Bank TN | 2.7% | 321% total 423%
|
🔒 | 0.23% |
| Pcb Bank CA | 1.9% | 304% total 471%
|
🔒 | 0.13% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Commerce Bank, National Association | $332M | 257% total 369%
|
3.03% | 🔒 |
| Community Bank Of Pickens County | $366M | 211% total 399%
|
2.42% | 🔒 |
| Touchmark National Bank | $283M | 387% total 510%
|
2.26% | 🔒 |
| Citizens Trust Bank | $197M | 110% total 177%
|
1.62% | 🔒 |
| Promiseone Bank | $332M | 284% total 364%
|
1.01% | 🔒 |
| Metro City Bank | $1.5B | 148% total 288%
|
0.47% | 🔒 |
| Craft Bank | $150M | 218% total 330%
|
0.98% | 🔒 |
| Bank Of Monticello | $56M | 163% total 234%
|
0.35% | 🔒 |
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA ranks 48 of 275, counting from the most strained, with a wall-to-room ratio of 1.42 against a maturing balance of $972.7mm across 75 loans; committed draws of $1.80bn cut available room to $684.3mm from $1.83bn, pushing the ratio to 1.42 from 0.53 before committed draws. That reading comes with 39 banks qualifying and 20 excluded here, so the strain may partly reflect an exclusion artifact rather than a credit event, and because the wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months rather than the metro's whole maturity load, the ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | -2.6% | +1.3% | 95.5% | +0.7% | 2026-07-30 |
| EQR | -6.2% | -2.0% | 96.2% | -2.6% | 2026-04-28 |
| MAA | +0.6% | 0.0% | 95.2% | 0.0% | 2026-07-29 |
Over the trailing 365 days, the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA metro shows 52 approved store closures and 56 WARN notices, with 9,254 jobs affected across those notices — a figure that is a floor, since notices stating no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs. Separately, the 80 CRE-likely bankruptcies figure is a STATE PROXY rather than a metro-native count, counting filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in, and coverage widened to both court feeds on 2026-09-16, so counts before and after that date are not comparable.